Table of Content

31 December 2011, Volume 45 Issue 12 Previous Issue    Next Issue

Management Science

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Analysis of Risk Factors in Technology M&As——Based on Interpretive Structural Model YANG Jun-Min, LI Cui-Juan, XU Bo 2011, 45 (12):  1737-1740.  Abstract ( 3233 )   Save Based on interpretive structural model, this paper classified the risk factors of technology M&As. The study shows that relative scale of the target to acquirer is the basic risk factor which affects all the other factors, while technology integration capability and technology staff retention percentage are direct risk factors which are only affected by other factors not affect any others. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Soldering Parameter-Setting Approach Based on Improved Adaptive Neuro Fuzzy Inference Model SHA Jian-Jun, PAN erShun 2011, 45 (12):  1741-1746.  Abstract ( 2850 )   Save To solve the problem in setting parameters for nonlinear dynamic system, an adaptive neuro fuzzy inference system was adopted to model the dynamic I/O system. A neural network predictor was introduced to enhance the adaptive ability of fuzzy neural networks and nonlinear approximation ability. By virtue of the nearest neighbor clustering algorithm, the parameters and the structure of the fuzzy rules were adjusted and updated, which improves the accuracy of fuzzy reasoning and enhances the system’s fault tolerance and robustness. The simulation experiment’s result shows that the proposed method can effectively achieve the quick and accurate setting of the nonlinear I/O system parameters. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Order Allocation in Supply Chain Considering the Economic Production Quantity of Suppliers SHI Yu-Lei, LU Zhi-Qiang 2011, 45 (12):  1747-1752.  Abstract ( 4287 )   Save This paper established the relationship between production batch and product   quality considering suppliers’ production process shift in a two-stage supply chain consisting of one dominant manufacturer and several suppliers. Based on the different considerations of deciding suppliers’ economic production quantity, and thinking of the purchase cost and expected after-sale loss cost together, the paper builds two kinds of order allocation models. The constraint conditions include supplier capacity constraints and supplier relationship maintenance constraints. Then the models’ superior solutions are obtained through the genetic algorithm. Finally, the paper gives the sensitivity analysis of pricing strategy changes of a single supplier based on the joint decision model. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Banking Systemic Risk Based on Dynamic CoVaR Estimation GAO Guo-Hua, PAN Ying-Li 2011, 45 (12):  1753-1759.  Abstract ( 5588 )   Save This paper estimated banking systemic risk based on CoVaR measure discussed by Adrian and Brunnermeier（2009）. Our conclusions are: ① banking systemic risk has no linear relationship with its VaR.In China the four stateowned banks have most systemic risk.② CoVaR, VaR and nonperforming loans ratio are significant to predict future marginal systemic risk of banks. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The Multi-Production-Period and Collaborative Ordering Model for One-Vendor Multi-buyer Integrated System XIONG Hao-1, 2 2011, 45 (12):  1760-1764.  Abstract ( 2577 )   Save  In the general vendor-buyer integrated production inventory models, there exist common assumptions: only single production period in a strategy cycle; different buyers have the same ordering times and the same order interval. This paper relaxed these assumptions and developed a “multi-production-period and collaborative ordering” model for one-vendor multi-buyer integrated system. First, the different buyers’ ordering can be transformed into a virtual buyers’ ordering. Then, after mapping the virtual buyer’s ordering on the vendor’s different production period, so the system during this period seems as a single-vendor single-buyer system. And the virtual buyer’s ordering strategy should meet the constraints deduced from the inventory-time diagram of single-manufacturer single-buyer system. So, the mathematical model for the “multi-production-period and collaborative ordering” strategy was constructed. And the solution procedure of the heuristic algorithm to solve the model was given. The numerical examples verify that our model can yield a lower cost solution compared with the existing ones.   References | Related Articles | Metrics

Management Science

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Coordination Mechanism and Revenue-Sharing Contract Design Considering Customers’ Strategic Behavior CAI Jian-Hu-1, 2 , HAN Yi-1, HUANG Zu-Qing-3, WANG Rui-1 2011, 45 (12):  1765-1771.  Abstract ( 2889 )   Save  Main content of customers’ strategic behavior was discussed, and the impacts on supply chain management brought by customers’ strategic behavior were also analyzed. Then a twoechelon supply chain model was introduced, and the revenue-sharing contracts were discussed under two different competition environments. The supplier or the retailer is playing leadership status respectively under these two different competition environments. The optimal decisions  were gained to coordinate the supply chain, and the arbitrary profit allocation was also obtained. At last, all our findings were illustrated by a numerical example. Key words： References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Supply Chain Coordination under RevenueSharing Rate Risk Fluctuating ZHOU Jian-Heng-1, 2 , WANG Zi-Wei-1 2011, 45 (12):  1772-1777.  Abstract ( 3303 )   Save This paper investigated the decisions in a single-period supply chain that is characterized by revenue-sharing contracts.  In contrast to much of the previous research that has been done on revenue-sharing contracts which concerns the wholesale price and revenue-sharing rate, the paper extended the basic newsvendor model, and therefore examined the efficiency of supply chain under asymmetric information, references were given to every parts of supply chain. Different revenue-sharing contract designs were contrasted under symmetric and asymmetric information, in order to figure out the coordination strategy of supplier when retailer’s actual revenue-sharing rate risk fluctuating. A mathematical model was established to maximize the expected profit when revenue-sharing rates risk fluctuates. The paper discussed different profits variations of three different situations including classical revenue-sharing, revenue-sharing rate risk fluctuating and without the supplier’s considering risk fluctuations situations. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Cooperative Game Based Mechanisms Design in Carrier Alliance WANG Wen-Jie-a, CHEN Feng-a, b , JIANG Zhi-Bin-a, b 2011, 45 (12):  1778-1781.  Abstract ( 2676 )   Save After carriers forming an alliance, because each carrier operates according to its own profits, the benefit of each member is usually not in line with the whole alliance’s, which leads to the instability of alliance. Carriers have two choices when facing emerging customer needs: refuse or accept. Combined the constraints, and based on the establishment of shipping logistics network operated by a carrier alliance, cooperative game theory and mathematical programming method are utilized to establish the cooperative model of carrier alliance. And effective allocation mechanism is designed to provide side payment to each member. The decision process of alliance and individual member is modeled respectively, and inverse optimization technique is utilized to make the optimal decision of individual member accord with the whole alliance’s. In this way, the sustainability of alliance and collaboration is realized.   References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Analysis of Operation Decision in Supply Chain Based on Asymmetrical Quality Risk ZHOU Chao-Yun, LU Zhi-Qiang 2011, 45 (12):  1782-1787.  Abstract ( 3362 )   Save To analyze the supply chain operation strategy with product quality risk and transport service quality risk under the condition of information asymmetry, the supply chain operation decision model for a twostage supply chain consisting of a supplier and a manufacturer was developed. This paper assumes the environment that the manufacturer dominates the supply chain. Considering the influence of the market, the paper uses threestage dynamic game theory to study how the members of the supply chain constitute reasonable strategies to make sure that they can gain maximum profits themselves while facing the asymmetrical quality risk. Furthermore, this paper also illustrates the fluctuation of one member along with the changing of manufacturer’s strategy. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Evolutionary Game Analysis on and Control Measures to the Exceeding Standard Problem for Electric Bicycle ZHANG Bo-1, 2 , JUAN Zhi-Cai-1 2011, 45 (12):  1788-1793.  Abstract ( 3177 )   Save Regarding different electric bicycle travelers as a homogeneous population, and each traveler as an individual with bounded rationality and learning ability, an evolutionary game analysis was given on the exceeding standard problem for electric bicycle. The research shows that when a travel mode choice game comes to an equilibrium, a certain kind of custom or convention will be formed simultaneously, and if the payoff matrix remains invariable, only a game with multiple equilibriums has the possibility to transfer from one equilibrium to another, which depends on the population’s initial state. Following the above analysis, some control measures were suggested. The application of evolutionary game theory and method of institutional analysis to the study of traffic customs and conventions can not only deepen the understanding of travel behavior, but also provide a theoretical basis for traffic policy formulation and implementation. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Management Science

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An Order Decision and Production Planning Integrated Available-to-Promise Model for Multi-plant Manufacturing WANG Wen-Hao, ZHANG Jie 2011, 45 (12):  1794-1799.  Abstract ( 3219 )   Save By considering factors such as plant geographic position, production capacity, inventory restriction, transport capacity and customer satisfaction etc., an order decision and production planning integrated ATP model was developed for assembletoorder multiplant manufacturer. Finally, a series of performance analysis experiment was conducted to reveal the impact of some key factors such as planning horizon, batch interval etc. on overall profit. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Perishable Products Distribution Planning Problem Based on Disruptions CHEN Xiu-Ye-1, LIU Xiao-1, SHAO Lu-Sheng-2 2011, 45 (12):  1800-1806.  Abstract ( 2698 )   Save This paper addresses the perishable products distribution planning problem based on disruptions. Based on quantification of the quality loss cost caused by the decrease of the quality of perishable products, as regards to the normal operation of the supply chain network and the situation that a node in the supply chain network failure caused by the disruptions, two optimal models were developed to minimize the total cost under constraints of limited resources respectively. Subsequently, the paper designed related algorithms. The simulation results validate the effectiveness of the algorithms and the emergency planning based on emergency orders strategy and expansion of the nodes’ capacity strategy proposed in this paper. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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An Empirical Analysis on the Irrational Exuberance of Chinese Cities’ Housing Prices Based on Nonstationary Penal Econometrics Methods KE Sheng-Pei-1, HUANG Jing-2, TU Mei-Zeng-1 2011, 45 (12):  1807-1811.  Abstract ( 3051 )   Save This paper re-investigated the comovement and the granger-causality relationship between housing price and rents by using the quarterly panel date from the 30 cities of China and the new non-stationary penal econometrics methods. The paper has solved the questions of small sample and the difference of different cities. The empirical results provide clear support of a longrun co integration relationship between housing price and land price. But the relationships are different in different cities. The evidence shows that the granger-causalities run from housing prices to rents in the long-run. While in the short time the granger-causalities between housing prices and rents are not existence. This shows that house prices have gone beyond the fundamentals determined by the rents, the Chinese real estate market is irrational exuberance. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Scheduling Algorithm for Virtual Enterprise Based on Time and Cost Dual Optimization LONG Jun-1, YUAN Xin-Pan-1, CHENG Tian-Chan-2 2011, 45 (12):  1812-1818.  Abstract ( 3304 )   Save A mathematical model for a virtual enterprise production plan was established based on a reasonable abstract virtual enterprise model and the task model. A scheduling algorithm which aims at the dual optimization of time and cost was proposed. Two heuristic optimization algorithms are proposed and the output is used as the initial chromosome of a genetic algorithm. The genetic algorithm is redefined to optimize the scheduling of the virtual enterprise’s production planning. Hence the global searching and local minimum avoidance capabilities of genetic algorithms are exploited to improve the global optimization capacity of the proposed algorithm. The experimental results show that the proposed methodology to combine the heuristic optimization algorithm with genetic algorithm is capable of reducing production cost and promoting agile manufacturing. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Study on Planning Model of LandOriented Supply Chain for Container Hub Port QUAN Lin-1, CHEN Guo-Qing-2 2011, 45 (12):  1819-1923.  Abstract ( 3188 )   Save Based on the hierarchical structure of land-oriented supply chain of container hub port, a two-layer multi-objective decision-making model for land-oriented supply chain planning of container hub port was set up. The twolayer multi-objective decision-making problem was reduced to a single-layer multi-objective decision-making problem. A kind of multi-objective genetic algorithm (MOGA) was designed to solve the single-layer multiobjective decision-making problem. A numerical example was given to demonstrate the application of MOGA proposed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Comparative Research of Average Risk of Portfolio on Different Strategies and Risk Diversification CHEN Jian-1, 2 , HU Wen-Wei-3, LI Zhan-1 2011, 45 (12):  1824-1828.  Abstract ( 2784 )   Save Four investment strategies according to investor’s preference are designed to choose portfolios to compare their average risk in Chinese stock market. Improved indirect disaggregated model is used to study components of risk to compare diversification effect .The empirical results indicate that average risks of portfolios which use different investment strategies are distinctly different. Compared with choosing stock from the whole market, the average risk of portfolios choosing stock from the big Blue Chip stocks is less. Portfolios of 30 stocks almost have deleted all idiosyncratic risk for strategy 3 and strategy 4. But the evidence is not enough to show that covariance risks are deleted. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Reliability and Validity of the Test for Independent Enrollment MA Lei 2011, 45 (12):  1829-1835.  Abstract ( 2882 )   Save Aimed at the reliability and validity of the current independent enrollment examination, a systematic study was conducted using empirical analysis based on the data of a certain university in Shanghai. Some useful conclusions were drawn, providing some operational and valuable suggestions for the perfection of independent enrollment examination. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Communication and Transportation

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Stochastic Traffic Assignment Model Considering Park and Ride Network Reliability LIN Xu-Xun-1, JUAN Zhi-Cai-1, ZHANG Wei-Hua-2, NI An-Ning-3 2011, 45 (12):  1836-1840.  Abstract ( 2723 )   Save So far most combined-modal traffic assignment models do not consider the influence of travel time reliability on travel behavior. Due to this reason this paper constructed a combined-modal traffic assignment model based on travel time reliability. This model took into consideration the stochastic factors of network in combined-modal travel behaviors, thus better depicted the model & route choice behavior. The algorithm was designed based on K-shortest paths algorithm coupled with the method of successive averages. Further the application of the proposed model and the algorithm were illustrated using real network of Shanghai North Bund. The results were compared with traditional models which do not consider the impact of reliability factors. This paper analyzed the effect of P&R policy on reducing traffic congestion and improving the link travel time reliability, and clarified the three-dimensional relationship among the rate of travel demand of two modes, reliability preference factor and travel demand utility factor. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Mathematics

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Uncertainty Measures of Rough Set over Dual-universes YAN Rui-Xia, ZHENG Jian-Guo, DI Yu-Ming 2011, 45 (12):  1841-1845.  Abstract ( 3165 )   Save  To broaden the application field of rough set, constructive method was utilized to research uncertainty measures of rough set over dual-universes. The relation between uncertainty measures of rough set over dualuniverses and Pawlak rough set induced by rough set over dual-universes was analyzed. The precision of relation in information system was discussed by comparing granular in Pawlak rough set. Information entropy and information granular of rough set over dual-universes were introduced to denote the classified ability in information systems. The relation between information entropy of rough set over dual-universes and the precision of relation in information system was studied. Also, the relation between information granular of rough set over dual-universes and the precision of relation in information system was researched. The results show that the bigger the information entropy, the stronger the uncertainty in information system is and the weaker the ability in information system is. The finer the relation in information system, the smaller the information entropy is and the smaller the information granular is. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Solving an Inverse Problem from Bioluminescence Tomography by Minimizing an Energy-like Functional SONG Shi-Jun, HUANG Jian-Guo 2011, 45 (12):  1846-1851.  Abstract ( 3707 )   Save A new method was proposed for the inverse source problem of the molecular imaging by solving a certain minimization problem though Tikhonov regularization method. The unique existence of the solution for the minimization problem is ensured by strict convexity of the objective functional. The convergence property and error estimate of the finite element solution for the discrete minimization problem were also discussed. The computational performance of our new method was shown by several numerical tests. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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Pricing of Credit Default Swap with a Hyperbolic Contagion Model WANG An-Jiao-1, 2 , WU Yan-Jin-1, YE Zhong-Xing-1, 3 2011, 45 (12):  1852-1856.  Abstract ( 2599 )   Save Under intensity framework, this paper studied the valuation of credit default swap (CDS), for a three-firms hyperbolic attenuation model with counterparty risk. By introducing a hyperbolic attenuation function to represent the effect of the default of one party on the other two parties, the attenuation effect was explored. The joint density function of default times for a special hyperbolic attenuation contagion model was derived by employing the method of change of measure. Using the arbitrage-free pricing principle in the complete market to price the swap rate of CDS, the closed-form solution was obtained.   References | Related Articles | Metrics

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A Posteriori Error Estimates for Local Discontinuous Galerkin Methods of Linear Elasticity CHEN Yun-Cheng-1, HUANG Jian-Guo-1, XU Yi-Feng-2, 3 2011, 45 (12):  1857-1862.  Abstract ( 3014 )   Save For the local discontinuous Galerkin method of linear elasticity, this paper established a global residual-based a posteriori error estimator of the stress field σ under L2-norm, in the case of meshes without hanging nodes. The reliability and efficiency of the estimator was also discussed. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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The IRBC Calculation for 2D Electrically Large Targets SONG Zhi-Qiang, LIU Peng 2011, 45 (12):  1863-1867.  Abstract ( 11709 )   Save Evaluation of Hankel functions of zeroth and first order arises in the finite element solution of two dimensional electromagnetic scattering problems as the iterative Robin boundary condition (IRBC) is used as the openregion boundary condition. In practice, approximation of these functions is required when the target is electrically large and the computation is very timeconsuming. In this paper, four approximation algorithms are first investigated, including series expansion, small and large argument approximation, and two different kinds of numerical methods. Then the accuracy and speed are compared in the computation of IRBC. The small and large argument approximation, combined with a certain numerical method is shown to be very effective. Some examples of electrically large size are also presented. References | Related Articles | Metrics

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LES-Based Numerical Simulation of Flow Noise for Submerged Body with Cavities ZHANG Yun, FU Hui-Ping, MIAO Guo-Ping 2011, 45 (12):  1868-1873.  Abstract ( 2664 )   Save A numerical simulation of flow and flow-induced noise was carried out on a duct cavity with Lighthill acoustical analogy and large eddy simulation method. The results agree well with the computed and experimental results in some published literature. The validation of the flow noise computation method used in this paper was verified. Then numerical simulations were carried out on two types of 3D submerged bodies, the prototype and the modified type. The inner flow patterns and the noise radiation results of both types were analyzed. The numerical results show that both the resistance and the flow noise level of the modified type are lower than those of the prototype. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Automation Technique, Computer Technology

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Analysis of Crosstalk Between Radial Tilt Error and Tracking Error in Tracking Servo of Blue-Ray Disc ZHANG Jing-Jing, WANG Yu-Xing, FENG Shi-Meng 2011, 45 (12):  1874-1878.  Abstract ( 2689 )   Save  Based on diffraction theory and parameters for blueray disc, this paper investigated the energy distribution on exit pupil and tracking error signal by differential push pull (DPP) method when focus spot scanning through the bluray disc. The paper also evaluated the influence of disk radial tilt on tracking error signal and the relation between amplification degree and tilt sensitive of tracking error signal. The result shows that the allowable radial tilt angle should be smaller than 0.39° to make sure that the blue disk is read correctly, and the amplification degree in DPP method only affects the amplitude of tracking error signal without influence on its tilt sensitivity. References | Related Articles | Metrics

Mathematics

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Electrowetting of Ionic Liquids on Superhydrophobic Silver Surfaces LI Wei, LI Mei, LU Qing-Hua 2011, 45 (12):  1879-1884.  Abstract ( 3193 )   Save Rough silver films were fabricated on glass substrates using silver mirror reaction, and the superhydrophobic surface was obtained by subsequent selfassembly with alkyl thiol. Electrowetting properties of various ionic liquids, including ［Emim］［BF4］, ［Bmim］［BF4］, ［Hmim］［BF4］, ［Hmim］［Br］, and ［Hmim］［OTf］, and aqueous KCl solution with different concentations on these superhydrophobic silver films was investigated, and the influence of factors such as the ion volume, the size of liquid droplet and the molecular structure of assembled layer on the electrowettablity was discussed. The results show that the electrowettability of ionic liquids is correlated with the ion volume and the charge delocalization, but is not influenced by the size of liquid droplet. In addition, it was found that the ionic liquids and KCl solution have similar electrowettablity as long as they have similar electrical conductivity. References | Related Articles | Metrics