考虑产消用户不确定性的售电公司购售电决策

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.530

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

新型电力系统背景下,传统的能源消费者正逐步转变为兼具电能消费与生产的“产消者”.产消用户的大量涌现使得售电公司的购售电决策变得更加复杂,与此同时,售电公司也将面临更多的不确定性因素,造成较大的市场风险.针对上述问题,本文充分考虑产消用户的发用电特点,并计及光伏、现货市场购售电价格不确定性因素的影响,提出一种不确定性环境下面向产消用户的售电公司购售电决策优化方法.首先,构建考虑不确定性因素的售电公司购售电决策双层优化模型:下层模型考虑产消用户光伏出力不确定性,以舒适度与用电成本为目标,建立产消用户鲁棒用能优化模型;上层模型针对现货市场购售电价格的不确定性,基于信息间隙决策理论(IGDT)构建售电公司鲁棒综合决策模型,并在售电公司侧引入储能和中长期购售电合约以增强售电公司的风险应对能力.随后,利用Karush-Kuhn-Tucker(KKT)条件将该双层优化问题转化为单层非线性规划问题进行求解.最后,通过仿真分析验证了所制定零售电价的经济性以及所建模型的有效性.

关键词: 产消用户, 不确定性因素, 信息间隙决策理论, KKT条件, 双层优化问题

Abstract:

In the context of the new power system, traditional energy consumers are transforming into prosumers, entities that both consume and produce electricity. The emergence of a large number of prosumers has made the purchase and sale decisions of electricity retailers more complicated. At the same time, electricity retailers will also face more uncertainties, resulting in greater market risks. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an optimization method of power purchase and sales strategy for electricity retailers facing prosumers under uncertain factors. First, it establishes a two-tier optimization model for the purchase and sale of electricity by electricity retailers under uncertain conditions. The upper model focuses on the comfort and cost of prosumers, incorporates the uncertainty of photovoltaic output, and develops a robust energy optimization model for prosumers. For the uncertainty of electricity purchase and sale prices in the spot market, the lower model establishes a robust comprehensive decision-making model of electricity sales companies based on information gap decision theory (IGDT). Then, it uses the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) condition to transform the two-tier optimization problem proposed in into a single-layer nonlinear programming problem. Finally, the simulation analysis demonstrates the economy of the retail electricity price obtained and the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Key words: prosumers, uncertainty, information gap decision theory (IGDT), KKT condition, two-tier optimization problem

中图分类号:

TM732

孙毅, 刘壮, 黄婷, 彭杰, 王晓甜, 刘创. 考虑产消用户不确定性的售电公司购售电决策[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(10): 1476-1486.

SUN Yi, LIU Zhuang, HUANG Ting, PENG Jie, WANG Xiaotian, LIU Chuang. Decision-Making Model of Electricity Procurement and Sale for Electricity Retailers Considering the Uncertainty of Prosumers[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(10): 1476-1486.

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运行参数	取值
S^r(0)/(MW·h)	4
P^r.ch.max/MW	0.4
P^r.dis.max/MW	0.4
S^r.max/(MW·h)	6
S^r.min/(MW·h)	1
η^r.ch/η^r.dis	0.90/1.11

指标	实施前	实施后	变化比例/%
系统净电量/(kW·h)	16 340.8	12 391.7	24.17
最大净负荷/kW	1 118.4	735.2	34.27
最小净负荷/kW	-921.8	-769.7	16.50
峰谷差/kW	2 040.2	1 504.9	26.24

不同场景	售电公司基础收益/元
无储能	2 258
有储能	2 303
储能+中长期合同	2 371

预测误差/%	确定性优化方法					本文优化方法
预测误差/%	增加收益/元	现货成本/元	平衡成本/元	日前收益/元	总收益/ 元	增加收益/元	现货成本/元	平衡成本/元	日前收益/元	总收益/ 元
-15	-503	-509	-353	2 135	2 494	-1 111	-160	-706	2 356	2 111
0	0	0	0		2 135	-555	0	-353		2 154
15	1 063	509	1 247		1 442	0	160	0		2 196
30	2 125	1 018	2 493		749	1 063	320	1 247		1 852