基于可消纳区间的风-火-储大基地日前-实时协同调度

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.509

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

“沙戈荒”大型新能源基地是我国未来新型电力系统的重要组成部分.综合考虑建设成本和碳排放等因素,大基地中火电和储能容量有限,灵活性受限,这使得大基地的调度运行面临极大挑战.为此,提出一种风-火-储大基地日前-实时协同调度方法.在日前阶段,根据风电粗略预测确定火电机组的启停计划及出力可调范围;基于火电出力可调范围和储能运行约束,构建风电可消纳区间.在实时阶段,根据当前风光出力,按照分位数规则生成调度策略,无需高精度预测,进一步证明了分位数规则生成的调度决策自然满足系统运行约束.算例验证了所提风-火-储系统日前-实时协同调度方法的有效性.结果表明:所提不依赖点预测的调度方法优于3步情况下预测误差在10%以上的滚动优化方法,且运行调度的表现可以通过提高日前预测的精度或者日内短期预测的精度获得改善.所提方法可为新能源大基地运行提供重要参考.

关键词: 风-光-储联合系统, 日前调度, 实时运行, 不确定性, 储能

Abstract:

Large-scale new energy bases in desert, Gobi, and arid regions are key components of new-type power systems in China. Considering factors such as construction cost and carbon emissions, the capacities of thermal power and energy storage in these bases are limited, resulting in constrained flexibility. Consequently, the scheduling and operation of these large bases face significant challenges. This paper proposes a coordinated day-ahead and real-time scheduling method for wind-thermal-storage integrated bases. In the day-ahead stage, the startup/shutdown plans and adjustable output ranges of thermal units are determined based on a rough prediction of wind power. Then, it constructs a wind power accommodation interval based on the adjustable range of thermal power output and the operational constraints of energy storage. In the real-time stage, dispatch strategies are generated using a quantile-based rule according to current wind and solar power output, eliminating the need for high-precision forecasts. It is further demonstrated that the dispatch strategies generated by the quantile rule inherently satisfy system operational constraints. The case study validates the effectiveness of the proposed method for wind-thermal-storage systems. The results demonstrate that the proposed method, which does not rely on point prediction, outperforms rolling optimization methods when the three-step prediction error exceeds 10%. Moreover, the performance of operational scheduling can be improved by enhancing the accuracy of day-ahead or intraday short-term forecasts. The proposed method provides valuable reference for the operation of large-scale new energy bases.

Key words: wind-thermal-storage system, day-ahead scheduling, real-time operation, uncertainty, energy storage

中图分类号:

TM732
TM614

杨银国, 冯胤颖, 魏韡, 谢平平, 陈玥. 基于可消纳区间的风-火-储大基地日前-实时协同调度[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(9): 1270-1280.

YANG Yinguo, FENG Yinying, WEI Wei, XIE Pingping, CHEN Yue. Coordinated Day-Ahead Scheduling and Real-Time Dispatch of a Wind-Thermal-Storage Energy Base Considering Flexibility Interval[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(9): 1270-1280.

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参数	数值
风电额定功率/GW	10
负荷峰值/GW	8
N	8
单台火电机组出力上限/MW	500
单台火电机组出力下限/MW	125
单台火电机组开/关机爬坡/(MW·h^-1)	250
储能SOC范围	[0.2,0.95]

算法	总成本× 10^-6/元	运行成本× 10^-6/元	优化间隙/%
B1	2.4732	2.4732
B2	3.0222	2.8243	14.20
B3(10%)	2.9530	2.8538	15.39
B3(20%)	2.9585	2.8574	15.53
所提方法	2.8381	2.8298	14.42

SOC范围	总成本× 10^-6/元	运行成本× 10^-6/元	优化间隙/%
[0.2,0.8]	2.8442	2.8398	15.00
[0.2,0.95]	2.8381	2.8298	14.76
[0.15,0.8]	2.8473	2.8367	15.13