发电企业低碳转型路径优化方法及应用

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.555

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

电力部门是中国二氧化碳排放最大的单一部门,电力低碳转型是实现“双碳“目标的关键抓手.当前,电力转型技术路径研究多从全局角度出发,以碳约束下电力行业转型成本最低为目标,寻求技术经济可行的转型方案.然而,针对发电企业低碳转型视角的研究仍相对欠缺,这会导致发电企业的低碳转型相对滞后,不利于电力行业的全局发展.基于此,本文综合考虑技术、经济、环境等多维影响因素,构建了发电企业低碳转型规划模型,分析了发电企业2060年实现碳中和的转型路径,并对比模拟了未来电力企业不同低碳转型情景下碳中和转型路径.研究结果表明,对发电企业而言,适度提前实现碳中和具有一定经济优势,但过早推进碳中和进程反而会带来成本剧增.此外,未来政策倾向于推高储能装机规模,发电企业需要加快推进相关技术及资源储备.最后,建议通过退役火电机组的改造或加装碳捕集与封存装置(CCS)的方式来解决火电机组退役问题,并将其应用于电力系统调峰与应急备用.

关键词: 电力行业, 发电企业, 低碳转型, 建模与优化, 碳中和

Abstract:

The power sector is the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions in China, and its low-carbon transition is a pivotal lever for achieving the dual carbon goals. However, there remains a lack of focused studies on the low-carbon transition of power generation enterprises in the existing literature. To address this gap, this paper constructs a corporate low-carbon transition planning model integrating multidimensional factors including technological, economic, and environmental considerations. It analyzes the decarbonization pathways for power generation enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the current policy. Furthermore, it conducts comparative simulations of several low-carbon transition scenarios for future power companies. The findings indicate that, for power generation enterprises, advancing carbon neutrality moderately ahead of schedule can yield certain benefits, but overly aggressive timelines may lead to steep cost escalations. Additionally, future policies are likely to drive increased energy storage deployment, necessitating preparatory technological and resource investments in relevant enterprises. Finally, the paper proposes solutions for decommissioned coal-fired power units, recommending their retrofitting or the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which could be assigned roles in grid peak-shaving and emergency backup.

Key words: power sector, power generation enterprises, low-carbon transition, modelling and optimization, carbon neutrality

中图分类号:

F206
TK01+8

严新荣, 王静, 郑文广, 高翔, 杜尔顺. 发电企业低碳转型路径优化方法及应用[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(10): 1487-1497.

YAN Xinrong, WANG Jing, ZHENG Wenguang, GAO Xiang, DU Ershun. Optimization Methods and Application for Low-Carbon Transition Pathways of Power Generation Enterprises[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(10): 1487-1497.

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地区	2021年	2040年	2060年
北京	2.880	4.452	5.118
天津	10.874	21.488	24.705
河北	11.302	27.409	31.512
山东	81.503	115.205	132.450
江苏	46.045	69.648	80.074
上海	3.354	5.661	6.508
浙江	10.741	21.784	25.045
安徽	23.305	29.790	34.249
福建	32.262	55.117	63.368
广东	14.968	50.571	58.142
海南	0.036	2.163	2.487
广西	5.822	13.024	14.974
云南	41.355	71.033	81.666
贵州	62.711	101.486	116.678
四川	32.934	57.368	65.956
西藏	0.315	61.922	71.191
重庆	3.899	6.283	7.224
山西	9.455	19.236	22.115
陕西	7.778	19.411	22.316
内蒙古	40.941	72.980	83.905
宁夏	2.376	8.272	9.510
新疆	73.421	132.208	151.999
甘肃	3.996	26.055	29.955
青海	0.549	17.800	20.465
辽宁	16.462	23.125	26.587
吉林	0.520	5.714	6.569
黑龙江	27.054	37.013	42.553
湖南	11.261	29.691	34.135
湖北	30.843	44.789	51.494
河南	9.742	16.816	19.333
江西	0.520	3.792	4.360
集团总需求	619.224	1 171.307	1 346.644

技术	趋势	2021年	2040年	2060年
煤电	下降	3.593	3.459	3.323
煤电+CCS	快速下降		7.507	6.026
气电	下降	2.800	2.404	2.047
气电+CCS	快速下降		6.452	4.750
水电	上升	11.110	11.323	11.552
生物质电	下降	10.890	8.997	7.359
BECCS	快速下降		13.045	10.061
风电	快速下降	7.100	3.980	2.164
光伏	快速下降	5.500	3.083	1.677
电化学储能	快速下降	1.6	0.42	0.2242

技术	占装机成本比例	2021年	2040年	2060年
煤电	0.02	0.072	0.069	0.066
煤电+CCS	0.04		0.300	0.241
气电	0.04	0.112	0.096	0.082
气电+CCS	0.06		0.387	0.285
水电	0.01	0.111	0.113	0.116
生物质电	0.02	0.218	0.180	0.147
BECCS	0.04		0.522	0.402
风电	0.03	0.213	0.120	0.065
光伏	0.01	0.055	0.031	0.017
电化学储能	0.03	0.053	0.014	0.007

技术	趋势	2021年	2040年	2060年
煤电	下降	0.262	0.178	0.119
煤电+CCS	下降		0.223	0.149
气电	下降	0.485	0.331	0.221
气电+CCS	下降		0.413	0.278
水电
生物质电	缓慢下降	0.359	0.296	0.242
BECCS	缓慢下降		0.370	0.303
风电
光伏
电化学储能	快速下降	0.180	0.090	0.045

技术	2021年	2040年	2060年
煤电	0.862	0.807	0.779
煤电+CCS		0.080	0.038
气电	0.365	0.342	0.330
气电+CCS		0.034	0.016
生物质电	0.805 (0)	0.724 (0)	0.696 (0)
BECCS		-0.651	-0.661
CCS捕集率/%		90	95
其他	0	0	0