上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报

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发电企业低碳转型路径优化方法及应用（网络首发）

  

  1. 1. 浙江大学能源工程学院；2. 华电电力科学研究院有限公司；3. 清华大学电机工程与应用电子技术系
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点专项项目（2022YFC3701500）

Optimization Methods and Application of Low-Carbon Transition Pathways of Power Generation Companies

  1. 1. College of Energy Engineering, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310030, China；2. Huadian Electric Power Research Institute Co., Ltd., Hangzhou 310030, China；3. Department of Electrical Engineering, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100083, China

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摘要： 电力部门是中国二氧化碳排放最大的单一部门，电力低碳转型是实现双碳目标的关键抓手。当前电力转型技术路径研究主要从全局角度出发，以碳约束下电力行业转型成本最低为目标寻求技术经济可行的转型方案，但以发电企业低碳转型为视角的针对性研究还相对较少，这会导致发电企业的低碳转型相对滞后，不利于电力行业的全局发展。基于此，文章计及技术、经济、环境等多维影响因素构建了企业低碳转型规划模型，研究分析了发电企业2060年实现碳中和的转型路径，并对比模拟了未来电力企业不同低碳转型情景下碳中和转型路径。结果表明，对发电企业而言，适当提前实现碳中和在一定程度上有利，但过早推进碳中和进程会带来成本剧增。此外，未来政策倾向于推高储能装机规模，相关企业需要做好技术及资源储备。最后，建议通过退役火电机组改造或加装碳捕集与封存装置（carbon capture and storage，CCS）的方式解决火电机组退役问题，并将其应用于电力系统调峰与应急备用。

关键词: 电力行业, 发电企业, 低碳转型, 建模与优化, 碳中和

Abstract: The power sector is the largest carbon dioxide emitter in China. The coaldominated energy structure poses additional challenges for decarbonization of China's power sector. However, studies focusing on power generation enterprises is still limited in the literature. The paper proposed a linear programming model based on the GAMS software platform to describe the characteristics of power generation enterprises, which will lead to a relatively lagging low-carbon transformation of power generation enterprises and is not conducive to the overall development of the power industry. The model utilizes power balance as the core and includes technical, economic, environmental and other constraints. This enabled the physical reality of current technology to be reflected, making the prediction of future policy and technological development possible. By applying this model, this paper studies the transition path of power generation enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060 under the current policy and action trends. Furthermore, several scenarios that may appear in the low-carbon transition in the future are simulated. Comparing the transformation pathways under different scenarios, this paper finds that advancing carbon neutrality prematurely will bring a sharp increase in costs for power generation enterprises. The increasing amount of energy storage installations could cause higher transformation cost, but it may also improve the utilization efficiency of thermal power units at the same time. For thermal power like coal-fired power and gas-fire power, this paper proposes to retrofit and install carbon capture and storage facilities on expired units, and apply to peak shaving and emergency backup.

Key words: power sector, power generation enterprises, low-carbon transition, modelling and optimization, carbon neutrality

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