上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报

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风光储并网制氢系统双层平准化成本模型

  

  1. 1. 国网能源研究院有限公司，北京 102209；

    2.龙源电力集团股份有限公司，北京 100006；

    3.国网经济技术研究院有限公司，北京 102209

  • 作者简介:张栋（1974—），正高级工程师，从事新能源消纳、可再生能源制氢系统经济性等研究
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网有限公司总部科技项目(5419-202256457A-2-0-ZN)

Bi-Level Levelized Cost Model for Grid-Connected Wind-Photovoltaic-Storage Hydrogen Production System

  1. 1. State Grid Energy Research Institute, Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China; 

    2. China LongYuan Power Group Co., Ltd., Beijing 100006, China; 

    3. State Grid Economic and Technological Research Institute, Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China

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摘要： 高用电成本是制约风光制氢大规模发展的主要瓶颈之一。在风光制氢系统中，风光发电出力特性、风光储荷配比、并/离网运行方式将影响风光发电利用率与制氢用电量结构，进而影响单位制氢量的可变成本与固定成本。本文提出考虑风光供电量与制氢用电量动态变化的风光储并网制氢系统双层平准化成本分析模型，研究风光离网制氢、风光储离网制氢、风光储并网制氢系统的成本比较，以及风光发电利用小时、制氢利用小时、系统调峰电价变化对制氢成本的影响。研究显示，配储并网运行可提高风光发电利用率和获取电网调峰收益、提高制氢系统运行稳定性；风光储并网制氢系统具有更低的制氢成本，是降低制氢成本的重要发展方向之一。最后，本文给出了离网风光制氢的配储成本临界值、并网制氢电网供电价格临界值、及配储并网成本临界值的估算公式。

关键词: 双层平准化成本模型, 储能, 制氢系统, 风光发电

Abstract: High electricity costs remain one of the primary bottlenecks limiting the large-scale deployment of wind-PV-powered hydrogen production. In wind-PV hydrogen production systems, the output characteristics of wind and PV power, the wind-PV-storage-load configuration ratio, and the grid-connected/off-grid operation mode will affect the utilization rate of wind and PV power generation and the electricity consumption structure for hydrogen production, thereby influencing the variable and fixed costs per unit of hydrogen production. This study develops a bi-level levelized cost of hydrogen (BLCOH) analysis model for grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production systems, explicitly accounting for the dynamic changes in renewable energy supply and hydrogen production electricity consumption. The model is applied to compare the cost performance of three system configurations: off-grid wind-PV hydrogen production, off-grid wind-PV-storage hydrogen production, and grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production. Furthermore, the impacts of renewable energy utilization hours, hydrogen production operating hours, and peak-shaving electricity pricing on hydrogen production costs are quantitatively analyzed. Results indicate that integrating energy storage improves renewable energy utilization and enables additional revenue through grid peak-shaving services, while grid connection enhances the operational reliability of hydrogen production systems. Among the evaluated configurations, the grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production system achieves the lowest hydrogen production cost, making it a promising pathway for future development. Additionally, this study provides analytical expressions for estimating critical thresholds of storage cost, grid electricity price, and the combined cost of storage and grid connection for wind-PV hydrogen production systems.

Key words: bi-level levelized cost of energy model, energy storage, hydrogen production system, wind and photovoltaic (PV) power generation

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