基于少样本的核电厂电子卡件寿命预测

doi:10.1007/s12204-023-2669-9

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 在小样本故障数据情形下，对核电厂电子板卡剩余寿命进行预测研究，可以为核电厂运维提供必要的决策依据，提升核电厂机组运行的经济性和安全性。为了解决小样本故障问题，本文采用威布尔模型来预测在核电厂电子卡件寿命，并利用阿伦尼斯方程揭示了电子卡寿命预测与环境温度之间的关系。首先采用截尾数据来扩充故障样本，通过删失数据与故障数据之间的权重比来进一步优化威布尔模型的尺度参数和形状参数；并利用秩回归拟合方程的方法获得卡件的特征寿命；采用小样本分组实验的方法来获取阿伦尼斯模型参数。通过对堆外中程高压电子卡的案例研究表明，在小样本故障场景下，结合威布尔模型和阿伦尼斯模型，可以对核电厂电子卡的寿命进行成功预测。该方法可以为核电厂电子卡件的预防性维修周期制定提供决策依据。最后利用温度-寿命模型可以为卡件的运维提供参考建议。

关键词: 寿命, 少样本, 威布尔模型, 阿伦尼乌斯公式, 核电厂

Abstract: A lifespan prediction model was developed based on a few samples to provide decision-making information for operation and maintenance, as well as improve the economy and safety of nuclear power plant (NPP) operations. This paper applies a Weibull model to forecast the lifespan of electronic cards with a few samples in NPPs. Relationship between the lifespan prediction of electronic cards and the ambient temperature is revealed using the Arrhenius equation. Censored samples are used to compensate for the lack of fault electronic card data. Scale parameter and shape parameter of the Weibull model are optimized by adjusting the weight ratio between the censored data and the fault data. Characteristic life is then obtained using the rank regression fitting equation. Parameters of the Arrhenius equation can be calculated by dividing the samples into groups according to the ambient temperature. A case study of the intermediate range high-voltage electric card of ex-core neutron detectors demonstrates that the lifespan prediction of electronic cards in NPPs can be successfully predicted with a few samples by combining the Weibull model and the Arrhenius model. This can help provide preventive maintenance recommendations for electronic cards. Finally, operation suggestions for the electronic card’s ambient temperature can be made by utilizing the temperature-life model.

中图分类号:

TM623.7

. 基于少样本的核电厂电子卡件寿命预测[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2025, 30(6): 1188-1194.

XU Yong, CAI Yunze, SONG Lin. Lifespan Prediction of Electronic Card in Nuclear Power Plant Based on Few Samples[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2025, 30(6): 1188-1194.

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