Multistep-Ahead Independent Prediction of Nonlinear Time Series Based on Independent Model

Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University ›› 2013, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (10): 1626-1631.

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Multistep-Ahead Independent Prediction of Nonlinear Time Series Based on Independent Model

YANG Zhenming1,YUE Jiguang1,WANG Xiaobao2,XIAO Yunshi1

(1. College of Electronic and Information Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 201804, China;2. Shanghai Shentong Rail Transit Research and Consultancy Co., Ltd., Shanghai 201103, China)

Received:2012-12-14 Online:2013-10-30 Published:2013-10-30

Abstract

Abstract:

A multistep-ahead independent prediction approach of nonlinear time series was proposed. The step-by-step recurrent approach and the independent approach were compared, and the influence of accumulative error on the performance of multistep-ahead prediction was analyzed. The recurrent neural network (RNN) was used to realize the independent prediction approach, and the predictive model of urban rail transit is built, trained and tested by MATLAB. The predictive results showed that the error of independent prediction was smaller than that of step-by-step recurrent approach. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach were analyzed.

Key words：

Key words: nonlinear time series, multistep-ahead independent prediction, accumulative error, recurrent neural network

CLC Number:

TP 273

YANG Zhenming1,YUE Jiguang1,WANG Xiaobao2,XIAO Yunshi1. Multistep-Ahead Independent Prediction of Nonlinear Time Series Based on Independent Model[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 2013, 47(10): 1626-1631.

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Multistep-Ahead Independent Prediction of Nonlinear Time Series Based on Independent Model

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