上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2012, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (03): 436-440.

• 交通运输 • 上一篇    下一篇

城市道路网络动态OD矩阵预测模型

刁阳a,隽志才a,倪安宁b   

  1. (上海交通大学a.安泰经济与管理学院; b.船舶海洋与建筑工程学院， 上海 200052)
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-10 出版日期:2012-03-30 发布日期:2012-03-30
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金资助项目(50978163， 71001067)

Dynamic OD Matrix Estimation Model of Urban Network

 DIAO  Yang-a, JUAN  Zhi-Cai-a, NI  An-Ning-b   

  1. (aAntai College of Economics & Management; bSchool of Naval Achitecture,Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200052, China)
  • Received:2011-04-10 Online:2012-03-30 Published:2012-03-30

摘要： 实时动态OD(OriginDestination)矩阵是动态交通分配系统的重要输入. 运用状态空间模型的有关概念，考虑交叉口进口道观测数据建立了相应的状态空间模型，提出了一步预测卡尔曼滤波方程实现估计和预测. 案例研究表明，将交叉口观测数据纳入测量方程能更好地对OD矩阵做出较精确的估计和预测，且基于仿真的分配矩阵估计方法能更准确地反映OD流量在检测设施上的比例分配.    

关键词: 动态交通分配, 状态空间模型, 卡尔曼滤波, 仿真

Abstract: Realtime dynamic OD matrix is an important input for dynamic traffic assignment system. This paper built a new statespace model whose measurement equation will take the interaction detection data into account, and proposed a onestep prediction Kalmanfiltering model to achieve this target. The case study shows that including the interaction data into the measurement equation will give a more accurate estimation and prediction and a simulationbased assignment matrix will give a more accurate reflection on how many volumes are detected by certain facility.  

Key words: dynamic traffic assignment(DTA), statespace model, Kalman filtering, simulation

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