Two-Stage Robust Expansion Planning of Transmission Network Considering Uncertainty of Offshore Wind Power
TIAN Shuxin, HAN Xue, FU Yang, SU Xiangjing, LI Zhenkun
Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University
2024, 58 ( 9):
1400-1409.
DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.028
The complex and multiple uncertainties of offshore wind power pose great challenges to the safety and robustness of transmission grid structures. In order to improve the adaptability of grid structure to offshore wind power, a robust expansion planning method based on Vague soft set is proposed. First, Monte Carlo simulation is employed to construct the offshore wind Vague scenarios, which transform multiple comprehensive uncertainties of offshore wind power into uncertain parameter sets from true membership function, pseudo-membership function, and unknown information measure based on the Vague soft set theory. Then, a two-stage robust expansion planning model based on Vague scenario set is established for transmission network with offshore wind power penetration. The minimum total investment cost of offshore and onshore line and network loss is taken as the objective function in the first stage, while the minimum objectives of wind abandonment and cutting load for offshore wind power are proposed with the alternating current power flow constraint based on second-order cone relaxation in the second stage. Based on the expected values of wind abandonment and cutting load returned by the second stage model, the operation variables of the first stage model are modified to ultimately obtain the iterative transmission network robust planning scheme. Finally, the Gurobi mathematical optimization engine is used to analyze the Garver 6-node system and IEEE 39-node system to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed robust expansion planning method.
场景号 | 不确定集 | 规划模型 | 海陆线路 投建费用/亿元 | 海上风电 弃风率% | 切负荷率% | 总成本/亿元 | 1 | 典型随机 | 常规规划 | 8.6333 | 4.49 | 1.21 | 43.66 | 2 | 典型随机 | 鲁棒规划 | 9.2781 | 1.62 | 0 | 37.42 | 3 | Vague极限 | 常规规划 | 8.6403 | 5.33 | 3.33 | 85.53 | 4 | Vague极限 | 鲁棒规划 | 9.2456 | 3.09 | 0 | 56.52 |
Tab.2
Results of improved IEEE 39-node line expansion planning
Extracts from the Article
因此,可选取不确定性因素集合Ew={e1, e2},其中,e1表示海上风电场出力的不确定性;e2表示海上风电接入网络中负荷的不确定性.计算参数集内e1和e2的Vague值,即利用和表征某海上风电场不确定性因素的真隶属度的下界;利用1-和1-表征某海上风电场不确定性因素的真隶属度的上界;利用和表征某海上不确定性因素的信息不完备程度.e1属于正指标,值越大越优,其对应的Vague值计算公式为
结合海上风电接入下输电网鲁棒扩展规划模型,对改进的IEEE 39节点系统进行求解,得到输电线路扩展规划结果如表2所示.
由表2可知,在改进的IEEE 39节点系统中,输电网鲁棒扩展规划模型相较于常规扩展规划模型Vague典型场景下海陆线路投建费用增加 0.644 8亿元,Vague极限场景下线路投资成本增加 0.605 3亿元.但是同样因为大幅降低海上弃风、切负荷量,在Vague典型场景下输电网鲁棒扩展规划方案的总成本比常规扩展规划模型的总成本降低6.24亿元,Vague极限场景下降低29.01亿元.可以看出,由于鲁棒规划模型规划线路多于常规输电网规划模型的投建线路,海陆投建成本有所上升,但综合考虑海上弃风和弃负荷成本后,总成本却有所减小.对应场景4中Vague极限不确定性集合下改进IEEE 39节点系统的输电网鲁棒规划方案如图6所示.图中:G表示发电机.
由表1和表2可知,无论是算例中的常规扩展规划方案还是鲁棒扩展规划方案,都可能出现弃风切负荷的情况,而扩展规划的目的并非不计成本地全额消纳海上风电,而是综合考虑各方面指标后在海上风电以及系统负荷不确定影响下,牺牲部分经济效益,使得系统的海上弃风率、切负荷率较小,实现海陆线路投资成本与海上风电消纳之间的动态平衡.对比4个场景可以看出,改进Garver 6节点系统或改进IEEE 39节点系统的输电网鲁棒扩展规划方案都比常规扩展规划方案在线路投建成本上有所增加,目的是在一定程度上增强输电网架骨架结构,以更好地应对海上风电带来的复杂不确定性,使得扩展方案无论是典型随机场景还是Vague极限场景下都可以更好地消纳海上风电,提高应对海上风电波动的鲁棒性以及综合效果.
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