Abstract:

The power sector is the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions in China, and its low-carbon transition is a pivotal lever for achieving the dual carbon goals. However, there remains a lack of focused studies on the low-carbon transition of power generation enterprises in the existing literature. To address this gap, this paper constructs a corporate low-carbon transition planning model integrating multidimensional factors including technological, economic, and environmental considerations. It analyzes the decarbonization pathways for power generation enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the current policy. Furthermore, it conducts comparative simulations of several low-carbon transition scenarios for future power companies. The findings indicate that, for power generation enterprises, advancing carbon neutrality moderately ahead of schedule can yield certain benefits, but overly aggressive timelines may lead to steep cost escalations. Additionally, future policies are likely to drive increased energy storage deployment, necessitating preparatory technological and resource investments in relevant enterprises. Finally, the paper proposes solutions for decommissioned coal-fired power units, recommending their retrofitting or the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which could be assigned roles in grid peak-shaving and emergency backup.

Key words: power sector, power generation enterprises, low-carbon transition, modelling and optimization, carbon neutrality