Decision-Making Model of Electricity Procurement and Sale for Electricity Retailers Considering the Uncertainty of Prosumers

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.530

Abstract

Abstract:

In the context of the new power system, traditional energy consumers are transforming into prosumers, entities that both consume and produce electricity. The emergence of a large number of prosumers has made the purchase and sale decisions of electricity retailers more complicated. At the same time, electricity retailers will also face more uncertainties, resulting in greater market risks. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an optimization method of power purchase and sales strategy for electricity retailers facing prosumers under uncertain factors. First, it establishes a two-tier optimization model for the purchase and sale of electricity by electricity retailers under uncertain conditions. The upper model focuses on the comfort and cost of prosumers, incorporates the uncertainty of photovoltaic output, and develops a robust energy optimization model for prosumers. For the uncertainty of electricity purchase and sale prices in the spot market, the lower model establishes a robust comprehensive decision-making model of electricity sales companies based on information gap decision theory (IGDT). Then, it uses the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker (KKT) condition to transform the two-tier optimization problem proposed in into a single-layer nonlinear programming problem. Finally, the simulation analysis demonstrates the economy of the retail electricity price obtained and the effectiveness of the proposed model.

Key words: prosumers, uncertainty, information gap decision theory (IGDT), KKT condition, two-tier optimization problem

CLC Number:

TM732

SUN Yi, LIU Zhuang, HUANG Ting, PENG Jie, WANG Xiaotian, LIU Chuang. Decision-Making Model of Electricity Procurement and Sale for Electricity Retailers Considering the Uncertainty of Prosumers[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(10): 1476-1486.

Figures/Tables 16

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运行参数	取值
S^r(0)/(MW·h)	4
P^r.ch.max/MW	0.4
P^r.dis.max/MW	0.4
S^r.max/(MW·h)	6
S^r.min/(MW·h)	1
η^r.ch/η^r.dis	0.90/1.11

指标	实施前	实施后	变化比例/%
系统净电量/(kW·h)	16 340.8	12 391.7	24.17
最大净负荷/kW	1 118.4	735.2	34.27
最小净负荷/kW	-921.8	-769.7	16.50
峰谷差/kW	2 040.2	1 504.9	26.24

不同场景	售电公司基础收益/元
无储能	2 258
有储能	2 303
储能+中长期合同	2 371

预测误差/%	确定性优化方法					本文优化方法
预测误差/%	增加收益/元	现货成本/元	平衡成本/元	日前收益/元	总收益/ 元	增加收益/元	现货成本/元	平衡成本/元	日前收益/元	总收益/ 元
-15	-503	-509	-353	2 135	2 494	-1 111	-160	-706	2 356	2 111
0	0	0	0		2 135	-555	0	-353		2 154
15	1 063	509	1 247		1 442	0	160	0		2 196
30	2 125	1 018	2 493		749	1 063	320	1 247		1 852