System Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Power System Supply Side Morphological Development with Dual Carbon Targets

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.294

Abstract

Abstract:

In order to simulate the impacts of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on power system supply side transformation from, the system dynamics method is used to analyze the main influencing factors for carbon emissions in the process of power structure transformation and their correlations under four different development scenarios. The evolution of power generation structure and power carbon emission in four development paths are studied. The results show that the power system supply side transformation would be affected by many factors. Under the premise of policy support, the development of market absorption mechanism and absorption technology would contribute to the transformation of the power generation structure, which is of great significance to the realization of the dual carbon targets.

Key words: carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, supply side, carbon emissions, system dynamics

CLC Number:

TM73

CHEN Wenxule, XIANG Yue, PENG Guangbo, LIU Youbo, LIU Junyong. System Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Power System Supply Side Morphological Development with Dual Carbon Targets[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(12): 1567-1576.

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参数	初始值	参数	初始值
配额增长率/%	0.13	线损率/%	0.06
电力标煤转化系数×10⁴/[t·(kW·h)^-1]	1.229	新能源装机容量×10^-8/kW	5.8525
国民生产总值×10^-12/元	101.599	GDP变化率/%	0.023
人口数量/亿	14.1178	人口增长率/%	0.53