上海交通大学学报 ›› 2022, Vol. 56 ›› Issue (11): 1479-1490.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.400
收稿日期:
2021-10-08
出版日期:
2022-11-28
发布日期:
2022-12-02
作者简介:
李伟湋(1981-),女,湖北省宜昌市人,副研究员,从事机器学习、软件智能化等方向研究;E-mail:基金资助:
LI Weiweia,b,c(), GAO Peixuea, CHEN Jina, LU Yuqinga
Received:
2021-10-08
Online:
2022-11-28
Published:
2022-12-02
摘要:
现有的无人机态势评估方法没有考虑复杂外界环境对决策者的影响,并且通常只能得到评估的排序结果,决策者需要在短时间内进行决策,常出现误判或错失打击窗口期.针对该问题,提出一种基于累积前景理论的三支决策模型.首先,通过直觉模糊接近于理想值的排序方法求取目标的条件概率, 得到态势评估结果;之后基于累积前景理论对无人机获取的直觉模糊态势信息进行计算,得到每个目标执行不同动作时对应的累积前景价值;最后,基于累积前景价值最大化的原则,推导出新的三支决策规则,对态势评估结果进行三支划分.实验分析表明:该方法不仅得到了目标威胁排序,而且对目标威胁等级进行客观分类;同时在评估过程中考虑决策者的心理,得到符合决策者特质的目标威胁评估结果,为复杂多变的空战提供一种合理的决策支持.
中图分类号:
李伟湋, 高培雪, 陈进, 路玉卿. 基于累积前景理论和三支决策的无人机态势评估[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2022, 56(11): 1479-1490.
LI Weiwei, GAO Peixue, CHEN Jin, LU Yuqing. Unmanned Aerial Vehicle Situation Assessment Based on Cumulative Prospect Theory and Three-Way Decision[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2022, 56(11): 1479-1490.
表2
归一化多属性直觉模糊信息矩阵
目标 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
类型 | (0.7, 0.2) | (0.7, 0.0) | (0.5, 0.1) | (0.5, 0.3) | (0.1, 0.6) |
距离 | (0.235, 0.702) | (0.281, 0.662) | (0.194, 0.747) | (0.203, 0.759) | (0.726, 0.232) |
角度 | (0.446, 0.272) | (0.279, 0.515) | (0.223, 0.511) | (0.248, 0.584) | (0.446, 0.272) |
速度 | (0.546, 0.193) | (0.136, 0.718) | (0.579, 0.274) | (0.239, 0.637) | (0.568, 0.903) |
高度 | (0.517, 0.167) | (0.346, 0.501) | (0.041, 0.917) | (0.172, 0.824) | (0.517, 0.286) |
干扰能力 | (0.5, 0.1) | (0.7, 0.0) | (0.8, 0.1) | (0.2, 0.5) | (0.0, 0.6) |
穿透能力 | (0.8, 0.1) | (0.3, 0.4) | (0.8, 0.0) | (0.3, 0.1) | (0.3, 0.5) |
防护能力 | (0.6, 0.3) | (0.6, 0.1) | (0.8, 0.1) | (0.6, 0.3) | (0.2, 0.7) |
表5
每个目标的结果矩阵
目标 | 动作 | σ=0.35 | |
---|---|---|---|
C | ?C | ||
T1 | aP | 0.2610 | -0.4570 |
aB | -0.2610 | -0.1600 | |
aN | -0.7548 | 0.1600 | |
T2 | aP | 0.2233 | -0.5823 |
aB | -0.2233 | -0.2038 | |
aN | -0.6380 | 0.2038 | |
T3 | aP | 0.2297 | -0.5079 |
aB | -0.2297 | -0.1778 | |
aN | -0.6564 | 0.1778 | |
T4 | aP | 0.1748 | -0.6923 |
aB | -0.1748 | -0.2423 | |
aN | -0.4995 | 0.2423 | |
T5 | aP | 0.1709 | -0.7054 |
aB | -0.1709 | -0.2469 | |
aN | -0.4884 | 0.2469 |
表9
3种类型决策者的累积前景价值
飞行 员类 型 | 累积 前景 价值 类型 | T1 | T2 | T3 | T4 | T5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
冒险型 | VP | 0.1991 | -0.0600 | 0.0513 | -0.3253 | -0.3706 |
VB | -0.1584 | -0.2255 | -0.1767 | -0.1884 | -0.1533 | |
VN | -0.4633 | -0.1707 | -0.2638 | 0.0936 | 0.1317 | |
中间型 | VP | 0.0474 | -0.1876 | -0.0765 | -0.4531 | -0.4980 |
VB | -0.1034 | -0.0888 | -0.0660 | -0.0788 | -0.0840 | |
VN | -0.6082 | -0.2993 | -0.3837 | -0.0422 | -0.0119 | |
保守型 | VP | 0.0546 | -0.1220 | -0.0371 | -0.3254 | -0.3599 |
VB | -0.0522 | -0.0437 | -0.0299 | -0.0373 | -0.0408 | |
VN | -0.4500 | -0.2079 | -0.2703 | -0.0121 | 0.0096 |
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