“双碳”目标下电力系统供给侧形态发展系统动力学建模与分析

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.294

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为了模拟双碳目标对电力系统供给侧形态发展的影响,通过分析电源结构转型过程中碳排放的主要影响因素及其相关关系,构建4种不同发展情景的系统动力学模型.仿真分析了4种发展路径下发电结构、电力碳排放的演化趋势.结果表明:电力系统能源供给侧形态发展受多种因素的共同影响,在政策大力支持的前提下,市场消纳机制和消纳技术的发展促进电力系统发电结构的转型,对双碳目标的实现具有重要意义.

关键词: 双碳目标, 供给侧, 碳排放, 系统动力学

Abstract:

In order to simulate the impacts of carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals on power system supply side transformation from, the system dynamics method is used to analyze the main influencing factors for carbon emissions in the process of power structure transformation and their correlations under four different development scenarios. The evolution of power generation structure and power carbon emission in four development paths are studied. The results show that the power system supply side transformation would be affected by many factors. Under the premise of policy support, the development of market absorption mechanism and absorption technology would contribute to the transformation of the power generation structure, which is of great significance to the realization of the dual carbon targets.

Key words: carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals, supply side, carbon emissions, system dynamics

中图分类号:

TM73

陈文溆乐, 向月, 彭光博, 刘友波, 刘俊勇. “双碳”目标下电力系统供给侧形态发展系统动力学建模与分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2021, 55(12): 1567-1576.

CHEN Wenxule, XIANG Yue, PENG Guangbo, LIU Youbo, LIU Junyong. System Dynamic Modeling and Analysis of Power System Supply Side Morphological Development with Dual Carbon Targets[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(12): 1567-1576.

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参数	初始值	参数	初始值
配额增长率/%	0.13	线损率/%	0.06
电力标煤转化系数×10⁴/[t·(kW·h)^-1]	1.229	新能源装机容量×10^-8/kW	5.8525
国民生产总值×10^-12/元	101.599	GDP变化率/%	0.023
人口数量/亿	14.1178	人口增长率/%	0.53