An Artificial Neural Network-Based Method for Prediction of Ice Resistance of Polar Ships

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.316

Abstract

Abstract:

Accurate prediction of ice resistance plays an important role in ensuring the safety of ship sailing in polar navigation in ice areas. In recent years, machine learning has been widely used in the field of ships, among which artificial neural network (ANN) is a common method. The focus of this paper is to design an ANN model for predicting the ice resistance of polar ships. According to the traditional empirical and semi-empirical formula, appropriate input characteristic parameters are selected. The radial basis function (RBF) neural network model is built based on a large number of ship model test data, and the genetic algorithm (GA) is used to optimize the model. The research shows that the radial basis function neural network model optimized by genetic algorithm (RBF-GA) based on seven characteristic parameters input has good generalization effect. Compared with the model test and full-scale test data, the average error is about 8%, which shows that the RBF-GA model has a high accuracy, and can be used as a tool for ice resistance prediction.

Key words: ice resistance, machine learning, radial basis function (RBF) neural network, genetic algorithm (GA), ship test

CLC Number:

U661

SUN Qianyang, ZHOU Li, DING Shifeng, LIU Renwei, DING Yi. An Artificial Neural Network-Based Method for Prediction of Ice Resistance of Polar Ships[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2024, 58(2): 156-165.

Figures/Tables 12

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References 40

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类别	参数	Lewis等^[15]	Vance^[16]	Zahn等^[17]	Lindqvist^[18]	Riska等^[19]	Keinonen等^[21]
船舶参数	船长/m	√		√	√	√	√
	船宽/m	√	√	√	√	√	√
	吃水/m				√	√	√
	首柱倾角/(°)				√	√
	水线角/(°)				√
	船速/(m·s^-1)	√	√	√	√	√	√
冰参数	冰厚/m	√	√	√	√	√	√
	弯曲强度/kPa	√	√		√	√	√
	弹性模量/kPa				√
	雪厚/m						√

船名	来源	冰况
Ferry NB550	文献[22]	平整冰
CCGS (Terry Fox)	文献[23]	平整冰
USCGC (Healy)		平整冰
Korean RV (Araon)		平整冰
ICE BREAKER PSV(KS1654)	文献[24]	平整冰
MV Arctic	文献[25]	平整冰
Polar Star		平整冰
Japanese Model Ship		平整冰
Terry Fox		平整冰
PM Teshio		平整冰
R-Class		平整冰
Healy		平整冰
SA-15		平整冰
Korean RV (Araon)	文献[26]	碎冰
Terry Fox	文献[27]	碎冰
An artic tanker	文献[28]	平整冰
Icebreaking cargo vessel	文献[29]	碎冰
Korean RV (Araon)	文献[30]	碎冰
MT Uikku	文献[31]	平整冰
MT Uikku	文献[1]	平整冰
MT Uikku	文献[2]	平整冰
Korean RV Araon	文献[32]	平整冰
Arctic PSV		平整冰
Icebreaking cargo vessel	文献[33]	碎冰
A new icebreaker of China	文献[34]	平整冰

参数	比例系数
船长	λ
船宽	λ
吃水	λ
首柱倾角	1
船速	λ¹^/²
水线角	1
冰厚	λ
弯曲强度	λ
冰密度	1
摩擦系数	1
冰阻力	λ

类别	特征	取值	ρ_x_,_y
船舶相关参数	船速,v/kn	0~11	0.056
	船长,L/m	26.155~259.2	0.630
	船宽,B/m	7.5~44	0.774
	船舶吃水,T/m	2.3~15	0.645
	首柱倾角,ϕ/(°)	19~35	-0.178
冰相关参数	冰厚,h_i/m	0.2~1.6	0.628
	冰弯曲强度,σ_f/kPa	392~1 200	0.122

名称	数值
激活函数	Sigmoid
初始化粒子数	100
最大迭代次数	100
种群规模	50
交叉概率	0.1
变异概率	0.2
个体长度	10
最佳个体适应度	0.7
学习率	0.01
损失函数	MSE