Assessment Method for Urban Energy Carbon Emission Peak Based on Mann-Kendall Trend Test

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.524

Abstract

Abstract:

Energy is an important component of urban carbon emissions. Assessing the peak of urban energy carbon is a necessary means to implement the national “double carbon” strategy. For this reason, this paper proposes an energy carbon peaking assessment method based on Mann-Kendall trend test for carbon emission of urban energy. By constructing a carbon monitoring system covering elements such as energy carbon emissions, clean energy generation, and transportation electric energy substitution, the total energy carbon emissions of the city are calculated by combining historical data. In view of the seasonality and randomness of energy carbon emissions, the Mann-Kendall trend test was used to establish a model for determining urban energy carbon peaking and to measure regional carbon emissions in different periods. Taking an administrative region in Shanghai as an example, the peak status of energy carbon in this region is judged from the perspective of year and quarter. The results show that based on the annual data, the region has reached its peak energy carbon in 2020. Based on quarterly data, peak energy carbon has been achieved in summer and autumn, while spring and winter are still in plateau. The methods proposed in this paper can be used to assess the carbon peak status in the city, and provide a reference for examining the carbon peak process in other provinces and cities.

Key words: energy carbon monitoring system, Mann-Kendall trend test, urban energy, carbon peaking

CLC Number:

TK01+2

CHEN Yun, SHEN Hao, WANG Xiaohui, ZHAO Wenkai, PAN Zhijun, WANG Jiayu, LI Siyuan, HAN Dong. Assessment Method for Urban Energy Carbon Emission Peak Based on Mann-Kendall Trend Test[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(7): 928-938.

Figures/Tables 13

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年份	S	V(S)	Z_mk	P	发展趋势
2012	-1	1.00	0.00	1.00	无趋势
2013	-3	3.65	-1.03	0.31	无趋势
2014	-6	8.66	-1.71	0.09	无趋势
2015	-8	16.66	-1.72	0.09	无趋势
2016	-9	28.34	-1.51	0.12	无趋势
2017	-9	44.32	-1.19	0.22	无趋势
2018	-12	65.33	-1.36	0.17	无趋势
2019	-18	92.00	-1.75	0.09	无趋势
2020	-27	125.00	-2.33	0.02	下降趋势

季节	S	V(S)	Z_mk	P	发展趋势
春	-7	125.00	-0.54	0.590	无趋势
夏	-29	125.00	-2.50	0.010	下降趋势
秋	-35	125.00	-3.04	0.002	下降趋势
冬	-10	65.33	-1.11	0.270	无趋势

年份	S	V(S)	Z_mk	P	发展趋势
2016	-1	1.00	0.00	1.00	无趋势
2017	-3	3.67	-1.04	0.30	无趋势
2018	-6	0.12	-1.70	0.09	无趋势
2019	-8	16.67	-1.71	0.09	无趋势
2020	-9	28.33	-1.50	0.13	无趋势