碳中和背景下分布式光伏渗透与售电市场耦合机制分析

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.514

上海交通大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (4): 464-472.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.514

所属专题：《上海交通大学学报》2023年“新型电力系统与综合能源”专题

• 新型电力系统与综合能源 • 上一篇下一篇

碳中和背景下分布式光伏渗透与售电市场耦合机制分析

张晗¹, 韩冬¹(), 刘坦², 黄燕²

1.上海理工大学机械工程学院,上海 200093
2.国网合肥供电公司, 合肥 230061

收稿日期:2021-12-16 修回日期:2021-12-18 接受日期:2021-12-31 出版日期:2023-04-28 发布日期:2023-05-05
通讯作者: 韩冬,讲师;E-mail:han_dong@usst.edu.cn.
作者简介:张晗(1996-),硕士生,从事电力市场研究.

Analysis of Market Coupling Mechanism Between Distributed Photovoltaic Penetration and Electricity Market Under Background of Carbon Neutrality

ZHANG Han¹, HAN Dong¹(), LIU Tan², HUANG Yan²

1. College of Mechanical Engineering, University of Shanghai for Science and Technology, Shanghai 200093, China
2. State Grid Hefei Power Supply Company, Hefei 230061, China

Received:2021-12-16 Revised:2021-12-18 Accepted:2021-12-31 Online:2023-04-28 Published:2023-05-05

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为评估碳中和背景下,售电商随分布式光伏的高水平渗透而面临“死亡螺旋”运营窘境的可能性,分析可能导致“死亡螺旋”的关键影响因素,采用系统动力学方法进行建模分析.首先建立销售电价等市场条件引导下的用户侧分布式光伏渗透模型,其次根据分布式光伏渗透水平与售电商盈余之间的负反馈关系,建立售电商盈余模型.算例分析从中长期视角评估了分布式光伏发电量、批发电价等因素对售电商盈余的灵敏度影响.结果表明:售电商盈余在中长期时间内呈缓慢下降趋势,若输配电量、批发电价、运维成本等多重影响因素同时发生较大变化,所形成的极端场景可能引起售电商运营的“死亡螺旋”.

关键词: 碳中和, 分布式光伏, 系统动力学, 死亡螺旋

Abstract:

In order to evaluate the possibility of the ‘death spiral’ operation dilemma faced by the retailers with the high level penetration of distributed photovoltaic (PV) under the background of carbon neutrality, and to analyze the key factors that may lead to the ‘death spiral’, the system dynamics approach is applied for modeling. First, the model of customer-side distributed PV penetration guided by market conditions such as sales tariff is established. Then, a model of surplus of retailers is established based on the negative feedback relationship between distributed PV penetration level and the surplus of retailers. The case study evaluates the sensitivity effects of factors such as the generation of distributed PV and wholesale electricity prices on the surplus of retailers. The results show that the surplus of retailers tends to decrease slowly in the mid-long term. An extreme scenario may cause the ‘death spiral’ of retailers in which multiple factors such as transmission and distribution volumes, wholesale tariffs, and maintenance costs change significantly at the same time.

Key words: carbon neutrality, distributed photovoltaic (PV), system dynamics, death spiral

中图分类号:

TK01

张晗, 韩冬, 刘坦, 黄燕. 碳中和背景下分布式光伏渗透与售电市场耦合机制分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2023, 57(4): 464-472.

ZHANG Han, HAN Dong, LIU Tan, HUANG Yan. Analysis of Market Coupling Mechanism Between Distributed Photovoltaic Penetration and Electricity Market Under Background of Carbon Neutrality[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(4): 464-472.

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碳中和背景下分布式光伏渗透与售电市场耦合机制分析

Analysis of Market Coupling Mechanism Between Distributed Photovoltaic Penetration and Electricity Market Under Background of Carbon Neutrality

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