上海交通大学学报 ›› 2023, Vol. 57 ›› Issue (4): 464-472.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.514
所属专题: 《上海交通大学学报》2023年“新型电力系统与综合能源”专题
收稿日期:
2021-12-16
修回日期:
2021-12-18
接受日期:
2021-12-31
出版日期:
2023-04-28
发布日期:
2023-05-05
通讯作者:
韩 冬,讲师;E-mail:作者简介:
张 晗(1996-),硕士生,从事电力市场研究.
ZHANG Han1, HAN Dong1(), LIU Tan2, HUANG Yan2
Received:
2021-12-16
Revised:
2021-12-18
Accepted:
2021-12-31
Online:
2023-04-28
Published:
2023-05-05
摘要:
为评估碳中和背景下,售电商随分布式光伏的高水平渗透而面临“死亡螺旋”运营窘境的可能性,分析可能导致“死亡螺旋”的关键影响因素,采用系统动力学方法进行建模分析.首先建立销售电价等市场条件引导下的用户侧分布式光伏渗透模型,其次根据分布式光伏渗透水平与售电商盈余之间的负反馈关系,建立售电商盈余模型.算例分析从中长期视角评估了分布式光伏发电量、批发电价等因素对售电商盈余的灵敏度影响.结果表明:售电商盈余在中长期时间内呈缓慢下降趋势,若输配电量、批发电价、运维成本等多重影响因素同时发生较大变化,所形成的极端场景可能引起售电商运营的“死亡螺旋”.
中图分类号:
张晗, 韩冬, 刘坦, 黄燕. 碳中和背景下分布式光伏渗透与售电市场耦合机制分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2023, 57(4): 464-472.
ZHANG Han, HAN Dong, LIU Tan, HUANG Yan. Analysis of Market Coupling Mechanism Between Distributed Photovoltaic Penetration and Electricity Market Under Background of Carbon Neutrality[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(4): 464-472.
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