“双碳”目标下中国清洁电力发展路径

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2021.272

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

目前,第三次能源革命已经开始,为了减少碳排放,发达国家先后制定了清洁能源发展战略,并公布了放弃火电、核电的时间表.与此同时,中国也向世界作出承诺:2030年前碳排放达峰,2060年实现碳中和.因此,在“双碳”目标下,研究清洁电力发展路径具有重要意义.分析了中国水、风、光等清洁能源储量及其特征,预测了中长期电力需求,依据电力电量平衡原理,估算了2030和2050规划水平年电力系统结构组成,并分析了未来CO₂排放趋势,提出了未来中国清洁电力的发展对策与建议.结果表明:预计2027年中国电力系统将实现“碳达峰”;2030年中国清洁电力发电量将超过总发电量的50%;2050年火电、核电将被水、风、光等清洁电力全部取代,电力行业将实现CO₂的“零排放”,基本全面实现电力系统的绿色转型,以响应国家的“双碳”目标.

关键词: 清洁电力, 碳排放, 水-风-光-储互补运行, 电力电量平衡, 发展对策

Abstract:

Nowadays, the third energy revolution has taken place. Many developed countries have formulated clean energy development strategies and announced the time for phasing out thermal and nuclear power to reduce carbon emissions. Meanwhile, China has made a commitment to the world that the carbon emissions of China will peak before 2030, and the carbon neutrality will be achieved before 2060. Therefore, it is of great significance to study the development pathway of clean electricity of China. The reserves and characteristics of clean energy such as hydro, wind, and solar in China are analyzed. The medium and long-term power demand of China is projected, and the power system structure in 2030 and 2050 are respectively estimated based on the electric power and energy balance equations. In addition, the trend of carbon emissions is also analyzed. Some suggestions are proposed to guide the development of China’s clean electricity. The results indicate that the “carbon peaking” of China’s power system would arrive in 2027, and the clean electricity of China is projected to exceed 50% of the total energy production in 2030. Thermal and nuclear power can be replaced by clean electricity such as hydro, wind, and solar energy in 2050, the power industry will achieve “zero CO₂ emission”, and the transformation of the green power system will be achieved in response to carbon peaking and carbon neutrality goals.

Key words: clean electricity, carbon emission, hydro-wind-photovoltaic-storage complementary operation, electric power and energy balance, development strategy

中图分类号:

TM612

黄强, 郭怿, 江建华, 明波. “双碳”目标下中国清洁电力发展路径[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2021, 55(12): 1499-1509.

HUANG Qiang, GUO Yi, JIANG Jianhua, MING Bo. Development Pathway of China’s Clean Electricity Under Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality Goals[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(12): 1499-1509.

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国家	年份
奥地利	2020
瑞典	2020
法国	2023
意大利	2025
英国	2025
丹麦	2030
瑞士	2030
德国	2038

能源类型	理论蕴藏		技术可开发
能源类型	装机容量/ TW	年发电量 ×10^-3/ (TW·h)	装机容量/ TW	年发电量 ×10^-3/ (TW·h)
水能	0.694	5.92	0.687	5.86
风能	63.7	132.69	5	10.42
太阳能	1860	2401.26	10	12.91
合计	1924.394	2536.52	15.687	25.87

年份	电价/[元·(kW·h)^-1]
年份	水电	风电	光电	储能
2019	0.2~0.3	0.38	0.389	0.6~0.9
2030	0.2~0.3	0.25	0.150	0.4
2050	0.2~0.3	0.20	0.100	0.3

电源类型	装机容量/ TW	年发电量/ (TW·h)	年利用时间/h
火电	1.166	4935.4	4307
核电	0.049	347.8	7394
常规水电	0.328	1302.1	3697
风电	0.209	405.3	2083
光电	0.204	223.7	1291
抽水蓄能	0.030	31.6	1053
其他	0.024	111.1	5181
合计	2.010	7326.6	3645

类型	是否为清洁能源	优点	缺点	承担任务
火电	否	发电量稳定	电价较高、污染环境	基荷,可适当调峰
核电	是	发电量稳定	电价高、存在安全隐患	基荷
常规水电	是	电价低、灵活性强	发电量受径流条件影响	调峰、调频、备用
风电	是	无噪、安全、电价低	强随机性、间歇性、波动性	基荷
光电	是	无噪、安全、电价低	强随机性、间歇性、波动性	基荷
抽水蓄能	是	可储能,灵活性强	造价高、电能消耗较大	调峰、调频、备用
储能	是	可储能,电能消耗低	造价高	调峰、调频
其他	是	发电量稳定	电价较高	同火电