碳市场价格不确定性对电网调度影响机理分析

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.313

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

随着全国碳市场正式上线,电力行业将在碳市场中扮演重要角色,而碳市场对电力系统低碳调度的影响机理还有待研究.首先,分析碳排放指标的年度清缴机制对电力系统日前调度的影响机理;构建年度碳市场价格的非参数概率模型,提出不同风险偏好程度的电力系统低碳经济调度方法,包括条件风险价值优化、期望值优化、鲁棒优化调度.然后,从数学优化机理层面分析碳价不确定性对电网调度的影响.由算例分析发现,与传统经济调度模型相比,低碳经济调度模型可降碳8.41%,碳市场风险厌恶程度越高,碳排放量越低;碳配额系数越小,碳市场越能够促进电网低碳运行.最后,发现碳捕集系统获利的条件为碳市场价格高于度电成本与碳捕集能耗系数的乘积.

关键词: 碳市场, 价格不确定性, 低碳经济调度, 碳捕集电厂, 风险偏好

Abstract:

With the launch of the national carbon market, electricity industry is expected to play an important role in the carbon market. However, the impact mechanism of carbon market on low-carbon scheduling in power systems remains underexplored and warrants further study. This paper investigates the impact of the annual clearing mechanism in the carbon market on the day-ahead dispatch of power systems. A non-parametric statistical model is developed to annual represent the carbon market price. Considering the uncertainty in carbon price, this paper proposes several low-carbon economic dispatch methods for power systems with different risk preferences, including conditional value at risk (CVaR) optimization, expected value optimization, and robust optimization. The impact of carbon price uncertainty on day-ahead dispatch is analyzed through a mathematical optimization framework. The results show that, compared with traditional economic dispatch models, the low-carbon economic dispatch model can reduce carbon emissions by 8.41%. Additionally, the more risk-averse the approach to carbon pricing, the lower the carbon emissions. The smaller carbon quota coefficient further promotes low-carbon dispatch through the carbon market. Finally, this paper identifies conditions under which carbon capture systems become profitable, specifically, when the carbon price in the market exceeds the product of the unit generation cost and the energy consumption coefficient of carbon capture.

Key words: carbon market, price uncertainty, low-carbon dispatch, carbon capture power plant, risk preference

中图分类号:

TM731

吴静, 刘轩宇, 李响, 齐笑言, 李成俊, 张忠. 碳市场价格不确定性对电网调度影响机理分析[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(3): 354-364.

WU Jing, LIU Xuanyu, LI Xiang, QI Xiaoyan, LI Chengjun, ZHANG Zhong. Impact Mechanism Analysis of Carbon Price Uncertainty on Power System Dispatch[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(3): 354-364.

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机组	最小出力/MW	最大出力/MW	煤/气耗系数			煤/气碳排放系数/%	燃料价格/ (元·t^-1)
机组	最小出力/MW	最大出力/MW	a/[t·(MW·h)^-1]	b/[t·(MW·h)^-1]	c/t	煤/气碳排放系数/%	燃料价格/ (元·t^-1)
G1	80	200	0.000338	0.2298	4.98	2.3	1246
G2	60	150	0.000421	0.2127	4.30	2.8	1246
G3	25	80	0.000328	0.1230	1.50	2.2	2400

分位数水平/%	碳价/(元·t^-1)	分位数水平/%	碳价/(元·t^-1)
5	50.5	55	58.2
10	56.3	60	58.4
15	56.7	65	58.6
20	57	70	58.7
25	57.2	75	59.1
30	57.4	80	59.4
35	57.6	85	59.7
40	57.8	90	60.2
45	57.9	95	61.6
50	58.1

ξ	总燃料成本/元	总碳排放成本/元	总碳排放量/t
0.0	2 316 119	154 574	5 406
0.5	2 316 368	154 333	5 400
1.0	2 317 891	152 943	5 370
2.0	2 318 030	152 819	5 367
5.0	2 318 172	152 697	5 364

低碳经济模型	模型参数	碳排放/t	燃气机组G3启停状态0:00-24:00
期望值模型	ε_i	5366	000000001111111111111100
	ε_i/2	5133	111111111111111111111111
CVaR模型	ξ=0	5406	000000000111111111111100
	ξ=1	5370	000000001111111111111100
	ξ=2	5367	000000001111111111111100
鲁棒模型	Γ=1	5132	111111111111111111111111
	Γ=0.5	5366	000000001111111111111100
不考虑碳排放模型		5859	000000000000000000000000

碳配额系数/%	总燃料成本/元	总碳排放成本/元	总碳排放量/t
125	2 317 975	141 529	5 368
100	2 318 086	175 667	5 366
75	2 318 199	209 798	5 364
50	2 330 841	230 378	5 133