• 学报（中文） •

### 异重流水卷吸经验式不确定性对层平均数学模型的影响

1. 浙江大学 港口海岸与近海工程研究所， 浙江舟山 316000
• 出版日期:2020-01-28 发布日期:2020-01-16
• 通讯作者: 胡鹏，男，副教授，博士生导师，电话（Tel.）: 0580-2092306；E-mail: pengphu@zju.edu.cn.
• 作者简介:张维凯（1988-），男，安徽省合肥市人，硕士生，主要从事异重流数学模型研究.
• 基金资助:
国家重点研发计划（2017YFC0405400）, 国家自然科学基金资助项目（11772300）

### Influence of Empirical Relation Uncertainty for Water Entrainment on Layer-Averaged Numerical Modeling of Turbidity Currents

ZHANG Weikai,HU Peng

1. Institute of Port, Coastal and Offshore Engineering, Zhejiang University, Zhoushan 316000, Zhejiang, China
• Online:2020-01-28 Published:2020-01-16

Abstract: Combining with the existing experimental data of water entrainment for turbidity currents, uncertainties of empirical coefficients, E1 and E2, in empirical formula were investigated using the method of Gibbs sampling based on Bayesian theory. A total of 2×105 sample values for E1 and E2 were obtained. Through statistics, the maximum probability (E1,E2) values are similar to the original formula. By inputting these sample values of (E1,E2) into a fully coupled mathematical model, the evolution of the turbidity currents over a steep slope is simulated. The results indicates that the range of the computed current thickness, velocity, sediment’s volume fraction and bottom deformation increases with distance. If the sample values of (E1,E2) with the highest frequency were used, the model may underestimate the current thickness and sediment volume fraction, and over-estimate the current velocity and bottom deformation. The range of hydraulic parameters calculated with 95% (E1,E2) sample values inputted into turbidity current models is much larger than that with 25% (E1,E2) sample values, which indicates that the model is very sensitive to the value of (E1,E2).