Abstract: A group multiattribute decision-making model was proposed by implementing prospect theory, multiattribute decision-making, group decision-making and entropy methods for the optimization in commercial space investment. First, the decision-making function was decided using prospect theory by the preference of each expert to reach the comprehensive prospect value based on different investment options; second, expert decision weights were reached according to entropy method; third, the expert group decision-making information was congregated according to the group decision-making congregation algorithm to reach the most optimized investment option; finally, an example was given to demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the method. This model comprehensively takes the advantages of many methods to congregate experts’ experiences and avoid the subjective influences, thus providing a scientific decision-making approach for the commercial space investment.

Key words: commercial space investment, multiattribute decision-making, group decision-making, prospect theory, entropy theory

摘要： 针对商业航天投资效益优化问题，提出了一种综合前景理论、多属性决策、群决策、熵权法等多种方法的商业航天投资效益优化群体多属性决策模型。首先，运用前景理论，依据不同专家的决策偏好确定投资决策函数，得到专家对于不同投资方案的综合前景值；其次，基于熵权法，获取专家决策权重；再次，采用群决策的聚集算法将专家群体决策信息进行集结，得到投资方案的最优决策；最后，通过一个算例说明了方法的可行性和有效性。该模型综合集成了多种方法，既有助于集成专家经验，又能够规避主观因素带来的影响，为商业航天投资的科学决策提供了方法。

关键词: 商业航天投资，多属性决策，群体决策，前景理论