Abstract: This paper presents a quantitative risk analysis of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) transportation. An accident that happened on June 13, 2020, on the highway near Wenling, China is studied as a case. In this accident, LPG carried by a tank truck on the highway leaked and caused a large explosion, which led to 20 deaths. Different methods are combined to calculate the consequence of the accident. Multi-energy model and rupture of vessel model are employed to calculate the overpressure; the simulation result of the multi-energy model is closer to the damage caused by the accident. The safety distances in accidents of LPG transport storage tanks of different capacities are calculated in this study; the results show that the damage of explosion will increase with the filling degree of the tank. Even though the filling degree is 90% (value required by law), the 99% fatality rate range will reach 42 m, which is higher than regulated distance between road and building. The social risk of the tank truck has also been calculated and the results show that the risk is not acceptable. The calculating method used in this study could evaluate the risk of LPG tanker more accurately, which may contribute to the establishment of transportation regulation so that losses from similar accidents in the future could be reduced.

Key words: liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), quantitative risk analysis, explosion, consequence calculation

摘要： 本文提出了液化石油气运输的定量风险分析方法。以2020年6月13日发生在中国温岭附近高速公路上的一起事故为例进行研究。在这次事故中，一辆油罐车装载的液化石油气在高速公路上泄漏并引起大爆炸，造成20人死亡。用不同的方法计算了事故的后果。超压计算采用多能量模型和容器破裂模型；多能量模型的仿真结果更接近事故造成的损伤。本文计算了不同容量液化石油气运输储罐在事故中的安全距离；结果表明，随着储罐填充程度的增加，爆炸对储罐的伤害会增大。即使填充度为90%(法律要求值)，99%的死亡率范围也将达到42 m，高于道路与建筑物之间的规定距离。对油罐车的社会风险进行了计算，结果表明其社会风险是不可接受的。本文所采用的计算方法可以更准确地评估液化石油气罐车的风险，有助于制定运输法规，以减少未来类似事故的损失。

关键词: 液化石油气，定量风险分析，爆炸，后果计算