J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci

J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci ›› 2020, Vol. 25 ›› Issue (2): 157-164.doi: 10.1007/s12204-020-2169-0

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Preliminary Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak Using 3-Staged Model e-ISHR

Preliminary Assessment of the COVID-19 Outbreak Using 3-Staged Model e-ISHR

LI Sijia (李斯佳), SONG Kun (宋琨), YANG Boran (杨博然), GAO Yucen (高宇岑), GAO Xiaofeng (高晓沨)   

  1. (a. School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering; b. School of Mechanical Engineering; c. Zhiyuan College, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
  2. (a. School of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering; b. School of Mechanical Engineering; c. Zhiyuan College, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, Shanghai 200240, China)
  • Online:2020-04-01 Published:2020-04-01
  • Contact: GAO Xiaofeng (高晓沨) E-mail:gao-xf@cs.sjtu.edu.cn

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Abstract: The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.

Key words: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)| epidemic prediction| 3-staged model| hospital system| government’s control

摘要： The outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan has aroused widespread concern and attention from all over the world. Many articles have predicted the development of the epidemic. Most of them only use very basic SEIR model without considering the real situation. In this paper, we build a model called e-ISHR model based on SEIR model. Then we add hospital system and time delay system into the original model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 better. Besides, in order to take the government’s control and people’s awareness into consideration, we change our e-ISHR model into a 3-staged model which effectively shows the impact of these factors on the spread of the disease. By using this e-ISHR model, we fit and predict the number of confirmed cases in Wuhan and China except Hubei. We also change some of parameters in our model. The results indicate the importance of isolation and increasing the number of beds in hospital.

关键词: coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)| epidemic prediction| 3-staged model| hospital system| government’s control

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