Uncertainty Analysis of Value for Money Assessment for Public-Private Partnership Projects

doi:10.1007/s12204-017-1889-2

摘要/Abstract

摘要： In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money (VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai’an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.

关键词: public-private partnership (PPP), value for money (VFM), uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation model, discounted cash flow (DCF) model

Abstract: In recent years, private sectors are encouraged to take an active part in franchising of urban infrastructure investments and operations, which promotes the rapid development of public-private partnership (PPP) in infrastructure and public service supply. Value for money (VFM) assessment has been officially proposed to provide a reference for selection of projects planning to adopt PPP. Based on the bottlenecks of VFM application in China and the uncertainties for urban infrastructure PPP projects, a discounted cash flow (DCF) model is established for VFM of infrastructure PPP projects. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation model is established on the basis of uncertainty factors for VFM. Through the analysis of Huai’an trams PPP project, coping strategies of uncertainties for VFM are put forward. Findings of the research may propel the establishment of a complete VFM evaluation system for PPP projects. Key instructional functions of VFM during the process of decision-making can be brought into full play and PPP may develop orderly.

Key words: public-private partnership (PPP), value for money (VFM), uncertainty, Monte Carlo simulation model, discounted cash flow (DCF) model

中图分类号:

F 294

LIANG Qingxue (梁晴雪), HU Hao* (胡昊). Uncertainty Analysis of Value for Money Assessment for Public-Private Partnership Projects[J]. 上海交通大学学报（英文版）, 2017, 22(6): 672-681.

LIANG Qingxue (梁晴雪), HU Hao* (胡昊). Uncertainty Analysis of Value for Money Assessment for Public-Private Partnership Projects[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University (Science), 2017, 22(6): 672-681.

参考文献 16

[1]	BARLOW J, ROEHRICH J K, WRIGHT S. De facto privatisation or a renewed role for the EU? Paying for Europe’s healthcare infrastructure in a recession [J].Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine, 2010, 103(2):51-55.
[2]	TANG L Y N, SHEN Q P, CHENG E W L. A review of studies on public-private partnership projects in the construction industry [J]. International Journal of Project Management, 2010, 28(7): 683-694.
[3]	Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China.Notifications about promoting application of publicprivate partnership [EB/OL] (2016-11-24). [2014-09-23]. http://www.mof.gov.cn/index.htm.
[4]	National Development and Reform Commission.Guidance about developing public-private partnership. [EB/OL](2016-11-24). [2014-12-02].http://www.ndrc.gov.cn.
[5]	Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China. Instructions about developing publicprivate partnership. [EB/OL](2016-11-24). [2014-11-29]. http://www.mof.gov.cn/index.htm.
[6]	MLADENOVIC G, VAJDIC N, W¨UNDSCH B, et al.Use of key performance indicators for PPP transport projects to meet stakeholders’ performance objectives[J]. Built Environment Project and Asset Management,2013, 3(2): 228-249.
[7]	WANG C, ZHAO X B, WANG S Q. Research on performance evaluation of PPP projects on the basis of CSF and KPI [J]. Project Management Technology,2014, 12(8): 18-24 (in Chinese).
[8]	LIU J X, LOVE P E D, SMITH J, et al. Publicprivate partnerships: A review of theory and practice of performance measurement [J]. International Journal of Productivity and Performance Management, 2014,63(4): 499-512.
[9]	GRIMSEY D, LEWIS M K. Are public private partnership value for money? Evaluating alternative approaches and comparing academic and practitioner views [J]. Accounting Forum, 2005, 29: 345-378.
[10]	PENG W, CUI Q B, LU Y J, et al. Achieving value for money: An analytic review of studies on public private partnerships [C]//Construction Research Congress. Atlanta, USA: The American Society of Civil Engineers, 2014: 1189-1198.
[11]	TSAMBOULAS D, VERMA A, MORAITI P. Transport infrastructure provision and operations: Why should governments choose private-public partnership[J]. Research in Transportation Economics, 2013, 38:122-127.
[12]	LIU G S, WEN T. An improvement method of PSC for VFM in PPP [J]. Journal of Industrial Technological Economics, 2013 (10): 17-22 (in Chinese).
[13]	WANG Y Y, FENG K, YIN J, et al. Construction and application of VFM assessment model: A case study of urban rail transit PPP project [J]. Project Management Technology, 2015, 13(8): 21-27 (in Chinese).
[14]	AMEYAW C, ADJEI-KUMI T, QWUSU-MANU D.Exploring value for money (VFM) assessment methods of public-private partnership projects in Ghana [J]. Journal of Financial Management of Property and Construction, 2015, 20(3): 268-285.
[15]	TAN Y S. Analysis of value evaluation based on uncertain in enterprise’s venture investment projects [J].Technoeconomics & Management Research, 2009 (5):8-10 (in Chinese).
[16]	LI Y H. The enterprise appraisal under the parameters uncertainty-based on the Monte Carlo simulation [D]. Tianjin, China: Tianjin University of Finance and Economics, School of Science and Technology, 2009.