A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

doi:10.1007/s12204-016-1728-x

上海交通大学学报（英文版） ›› 2016, Vol. 21 ›› Issue (3): 320-327.doi: 10.1007/s12204-016-1728-x

A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

ZHU Yinghua (朱莹华), XU Feng* (徐峰), HU Hao (胡昊)

(Stake Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering; School of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

出版日期:2016-06-30 发布日期:2016-06-30
通讯作者: XU Feng (徐峰) E-mail:f.xu@sjtu.edu.cn

A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

ZHU Yinghua (朱莹华), XU Feng* (徐峰), HU Hao (胡昊)

(Stake Key Laboratory of Ocean Engineering; School of Naval Architecture, Ocean & Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China)

Online:2016-06-30 Published:2016-06-30
Contact: XU Feng (徐峰) E-mail:f.xu@sjtu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要： Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.

关键词: build-operate-transfer (BOT), infrastructure projects, concession period, risk attitudes, Monte Carlo simulation

Abstract: Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract. This paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation between the two parties.

Key words: build-operate-transfer (BOT), infrastructure projects, concession period, risk attitudes, Monte Carlo simulation

中图分类号:

F 224

ZHU Yinghua (朱莹华), XU Feng* (徐峰), HU Hao (胡昊). A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes[J]. 上海交通大学学报（英文版）, 2016, 21(3): 320-327.

ZHU Yinghua (朱莹华), XU Feng* (徐峰), HU Hao (胡昊). A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes[J]. Journal of shanghai Jiaotong University (Science), 2016, 21(3): 320-327.

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A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes

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