Microgrids with a high penetration of renewable
energy sources face pronounced source–load uncertainties. Existing
uncertainty-driven scenario reduction methods often fail to incorporate the
characteristics of the optimization model and exhibit insufficient
risk-aversion capability. This paper proposes an objective-oriented scenario
reduction method. First, a two-stage day-ahead and intra-day optimal scheduling
model is formulated for the microgrid under uncertainty. Next, the distance
between scenarios in the objective space is defined and analytically derived.
An objective-oriented scenario clustering method based on a proxy scenario set
is then developed, and scenario weights are reassigned according to the
operational risk of each cluster to obtain representative scenarios and
risk-aversion weights aligned with the optimization objective. Finally,
simulations on microgrids derived from the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems
demonstrate that the proposed method effectively enables targeted selection of
representative scenarios, reduces microgrid operating costs, and enhances the
robustness of dispatch decisions.
LIN Jiaqing1, ZHU Pengcheng2, XU Xiaoyuan1, 2, YAN Zheng1, ZHANG Jinlong2
. Objective-Oriented and Risk-Averse Scenario Reduction Method for Microgrid Operation[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 0
: 1
.
DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2025.329