Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University

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Objective-Oriented and Risk-Averse Scenario Reduction Method for Microgrid Operation

  

  1. 1.Key Laboratory of Control of Power Transmission and Conversion of the Ministry of Education,Shanghai Jiao Tong UniversityShanghai 200240China2. State Key Laboratory of Technology and Equipment for Defense against Power System Operational Risks, Nanjing 211106, China

Abstract: Microgrids with a high penetration of renewable energy sources face pronounced source–load uncertainties. Existing uncertainty-driven scenario reduction methods often fail to incorporate the characteristics of the optimization model and exhibit insufficient risk-aversion capability. This paper proposes an objective-oriented scenario reduction method. First, a two-stage day-ahead and intra-day optimal scheduling model is formulated for the microgrid under uncertainty. Next, the distance between scenarios in the objective space is defined and analytically derived. An objective-oriented scenario clustering method based on a proxy scenario set is then developed, and scenario weights are reassigned according to the operational risk of each cluster to obtain representative scenarios and risk-aversion weights aligned with the optimization objective. Finally, simulations on microgrids derived from the IEEE 33-bus and IEEE 123-bus systems demonstrate that the proposed method effectively enables targeted selection of representative scenarios, reduces microgrid operating costs, and enhances the robustness of dispatch decisions.