Bi-Level Levelized Cost Model for Grid-Connected Wind-Photovoltaic-Storage Hydrogen Production System

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2025.150

Abstract

Abstract:

High electricity costs remain one of the primary obstacles limiting the large-scale deployment of wind-photovoltaic (PV) hydrogen production systems. In such systems, the output characteristics of renewable power, the wind-PV-storage-load configuration ratio, and the grid-connected/off-grid operation mode affect the utilization rate of renewable power generation and the electricity consumption structure for hydrogen production, thereby influencing the variable and fixed costs per unit of hydrogen production. This paper develops a bi-level levelized cost of hydrogen (BLCOH) analysis model for grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production systems, explicitly considering dynamic variations in renewable energy supply and hydrogen production electricity demand. The model is applied to compare the costs of three system configurations: off-grid wind-PV hydrogen production, off-grid wind-PV-storage hydrogen production, and grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production. Furthermore, the impacts of renewable energy utilization hours, hydrogen production utilization hours, and peak-shaving electricity pricing on hydrogen production costs are quantitatively analyzed. The results indicate that integrating energy storage improves renewable energy utilization and enables additional revenue through grid peak-shaving services, while grid connection enhances the operational reliability of hydrogen production systems. Compared with the other two approaches, the grid-connected wind-PV-storage hydrogen production system achieves lower hydrogen production cost, making it promising in the future. Additionally, this paper derives analytical expressions for estimating critical thresholds of storage cost, grid electricity price, and the combined cost of storage and grid connection for wind-PV hydrogen production systems.

Key words: bi-level levelized cost model, energy storage, hydrogen production system, wind and photovoltaic (PV) power generation

CLC Number:

TM71
TK91

ZHANG Dong, JIANG Dongfang, LIU Chenxi, YOU Peiyu. Bi-Level Levelized Cost Model for Grid-Connected Wind-Photovoltaic-Storage Hydrogen Production System[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2026, 60(6): 955-964.

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方案	运行方式	配置方式	技术组合	储能配置	参与调峰
(1)	离网	风光	ALK+PEM 1∶1	无	无
(2)	离网	风光储	ALK+PEM 1∶1	20%/2 h	无
(3)	并网	风光储	ALK+PEM 1∶1	20%/2 h	有

系统	单位投资金额	运维费率/%	残值率/%
ALK	1500元/kW	2	5
PEM	5800元/kW	2	5
风电	4500元/kW	2	5
光伏	3500元/kW	1.5	5
储能	1300元/(kW·h)	2	5

系统	供电利用小时数/h	发电利用率/%	度电成本/[元·(kW·h)^-1]	电费成本/元	制氢固定成本/元	制氢成本/(元·kg^-1)
风光	4779	87.1	0.229	1097	412	16.79
风光储	5410	99.3	0.231	1258	412	16.42