System Dynamics Modeling Analysis of Urban Power System Evolution Path

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2024.009

Abstract

Abstract:

To investigate the evolution path of urban power system supply structures, an analysis is conducted on the factors influencing the installed capacity of various power source types in urban power systems, and a system dynamics model for the urban power system supply structure is developed, which includes modules for power balance, thermal power development, distributed photovoltaic development, centralized wind and photovoltaic development, and new energy carrying capacity. In the modeling process, the symbolic regression method is used to accurately set the model parameters, with a focus on the impact of low-carbon policies on various types of power sources, as well as the feedback effect of renewable energy carrying capacity on the installed capacity of renewable energy.The changing trends of various types of power capacity, the proportion of new energy access, and the new energy carrying capacity in future urban power systems are obtained by differentiated simulations in low-carbon policy scenarios. The simulation results indicate that low-carbon policies contribute to the development of new energy and the achievement of “dual-carbon” goals, promoting the green and low-carbon transformation of urban energy systems. However, excessive policy intensity may lead to insufficient renewable energy carrying capacity in urban power systems, causing problems in the absorption of new energy.

Key words: system dynamics, symbolic regression, urban power system, power supply structure, renewable energy carrying capacity

CLC Number:

TM727.2

YE Jun, HE Yibing, LI Xianfeng, YAN Guocan, YAN Lei. System Dynamics Modeling Analysis of Urban Power System Evolution Path[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(11): 1732-1741.

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表达式	C	L	S
y=716.3	1	1.608×10⁴	0.0
y=x₁-270.9	3	2955	0.8469
y=0.030 61x₀+353.4	5	365.9	1.045
y=0.030 61x₀+353.4	7	365.9	1.639×10^-5
y=0.032 93x₀-0.075 95x₁+400.9	9	353.3	0.01746
y=0.032 90x₀-0.074 72x₁+400.1	11	353.3	6.623×10^-6
y=0.032 90x₀-0.075 13x₁+400.4	15	353.3	2.105×10^-5