An Evaluation Method for Link Importance Based on Seismic Resilience of Road Network

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.359

Abstract

Abstract:

The evalution of link resilience importance is essential for improving the seismic resilience level of the road network. Using resilience achievement worth (RAW) as evaluation index, an evaluation method of link importance based on seismic resilience of road networks was proposed. With the help of the bidirectional inference ability of dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking the initial DBN as the benchmark and the link connectivity at different times as the evidence, the resilience curve of the road network was updated, the RAW was calculated, and the link resilience importance at different times was evaluated. Taking the local road network in Shinan District of Qingdao as an example, the evaluation method of link importance was verified. The results show that the seismic resilience importance varies with each link at the same time. The resilience importance of the same link is positively correlated with maintenance rate. The resilience importance of different links varies in sensitivity to time. The proposed importance evaluation method redefines and quantifies the seismic resilience importance of links at different times, and identifies the links with high resilience importance and sensitivity to time. The post-earthquake recovery strategy that inclines the limited maintenance resources to these links and the pre-earthquake prevention strategy that reinforces the links with higher resilience importance can more efficiently improve the seismic resilience of the road network.

Key words: road network, seismic resilience, link resilience importance, dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), resilience achievement worth (RAW)

CLC Number:

U491

CHEN Yiqin, HUANG Shuping. An Evaluation Method for Link Importance Based on Seismic Resilience of Road Network[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(10): 1250-1260.

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状态	t-1时刻中断状态	t-1时刻连通状态
t时刻中断状态	1-λ	0
t时刻连通状态	λ	1

边	意义
地震—路段	不同烈度下路段的连通/中断概率
地震—恢复	不同烈度下的恢复速率
恢复—路段&路段—路段	路段t时刻的连通概率由恢复速率与t-1时刻的连通概率决定
路段—路径	“与门”连接
路径—OD对	“或门”连接
OD对—O点/D点	“或门”连接
O点/D点—抗震功能系统	“与门”连接
抗震功能系统—路网	“与门”连接

路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度
0	1	1	0.89	11	—	—	—	22	0.86	0.82	0.79	32	1	0.98	0.96
1	1	1	0.92	12	1	1	0.92	23	1	1	0.95	33	1	0.98	0.96
2	1	1	1	13	1	1	1	24	1	1	1	34	1	1	0.5
3	1	1	0.89	14	1	1	1	25	1	1	1	35	1	1	1
4	1	1	1	15	1	1	1	26	—	—	—	36	0.71	0.64	0.55
5	1	1	0	16	1	1	1	27	1	1	0.92	37	0.86	0.82	0.79
6	—	—	—	17	1	1	0.98	28	1	1	0.99	38	1	1	1
7	1	1	0.98	18	1	0.98	0.96	29	1	1	0.98	39	1	1	0.86
8	1	1	1	19	1	1	1	30	1	1	0.98	40	1	1	0.5
9	—	—	—	20	0.71	0.64	0.59	31	1	1	0.92	41	1	1	1
10	1	1	0	21	1	1	0.98

抗震功能系统	OD对	路径	抗震功能系统	OD对	路径
应急救援系统	(5)→(4)	36	医疗救护系统	(4)→(3)	22+37
		8			22+21+24
	(5)→(10)	10+5		(4)→(8)	8+31+27+0
		31+27			36+20+30+7+0
	(5)→(11)	31+27+13		(10)→(8)	35+16
		31+33+12			27+0
	(15)→(12)	39+40		(10)→(13)	15
		4+25+15+23			13+41+23+15
物资运输系统	(0)→(7)	29+20+36+22+19		(11)→(8)	13+35+16
		29+30+32+33+18			41+3+0
	(0)→(14)	29+30+7+35+15		(11)→(13)	41+23+15
		29+20+31+27+15			41+40+2+25
	(1)→(7)	17+21+19		(12)→(8)	41+3+0
		17+21+1+18			41+13+35+16
	(2)→(7)	28+37+19		(12)→(13)	41+23+15
		28+37+1+18			40+2+25
	(16)→(7)	38
		14+39+34

路段	t=0	t=3 d	t=6 d	t=9 d
31	0.041	0.039	0.035	0.029
27	0.035	0.033	0.028	0.023
5&10	0.028	0.021	0.015	0.011
29	0.01	0.009	0.008	0.007
23	0.009	0.008	0.007	0.006
22	0.007	0.007	0.005	0.004
0	0.007	0.006	0.005	0.004
40	0.007	0.006	0.005	0.004
20	0.005	0.004	0.003	0.003
7	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.001
30	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.001
39	0.001	0.001	0.001	0