Flexibility Evaluation Method for Power System Based on Clustering of Typical Operating Scenarios

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2020.012

Abstract

Abstract:

The development of renewable energy represented by wind, photovoltaic, and hydropower can increase the uncertainty of power systems. In order to ensure the flexible operation of power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, a power system flexibility evaluation method based on typical operating scenarios was proposed. Through a modified K-means algorithm, the operating scenarios of renewable energy and load were clustered to obtain typical scenarios. The flexibility evaluation indexes were proposed from three perspectives including regional supply and demand balance, regional power flow distribution, and inter-regional transmission capacity. The flexibility evaluation index of each scenario, and the comprehensive evaluation index based on the appearance probability of each scenario were calculated to evaluate the flexibility of the system. Based on the actual historical output data of new energy and the load of a certain region in the south, the flexibility evaluation was performed on a modified IEEE 39 system. The results show that the proposed clustering method and flexibility index can effectively reflect the flexibility of the system.

Key words: scenario clustering, power system, flexibility, evaluation method, renewable energy

CLC Number:

TM726

YOU Guangzeng, TANG Xiangying, HU Yan, TAI Nengling, ZHU Xinchun, LI Lingfang. Flexibility Evaluation Method for Power System Based on Clustering of Typical Operating Scenarios[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2021, 55(7): 802-813.

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节点	电源粗聚类数	最佳聚类数
32	3	3
33	3
34	4
35	3
37	4

电源场景	概率	负荷场景	概率	系统场景	概率
场景1(源峰)	0.32	场景1(荷峰)	0.41	场景1(源峰荷峰)	0.1312
				场景2(源峰荷平)	0.1120
				场景3(源峰荷谷)	0.0768
场景2(源平)	0.31	场景2(荷平)	0.35	场景4(源平荷峰)	0.1271
				场景5(源平荷平)	0.1085
				场景6(源平荷谷)	0.0744
场景3(源谷)	0.37	场景3(荷谷)	0.24	场景7(源谷荷峰)	0.1517
				场景8(源谷荷平)	0.1295
				场景9(源谷荷谷)	0.0888

系统场景	分区1与2		分区1与3		分区2与3
系统场景	正常情况	n-1情况	正常情况	n-1情况	正常情况	n-1情况
1	0.4870	0.8453	0.9287	1.8574	0.7920	1.1881
2	0.5097	0.8592	0.9457	1.8914	0.7779	1.1668
3	0.5322	0.8563	0.9797	1.9593	0.7495	1.1243
4	0.4284	0.7990	0.8405	1.6810	0.8656	1.2984
5	0.4163	0.8129	0.8575	1.7150	0.8514	1.2770
6	0.4288	0.8100	0.8915	1.7830	0.8230	1.2345
7	0.5125	0.7453	0.7476	1.4952	0.9430	1.4145
8	0.4955	0.7592	0.7647	1.5294	0.9288	1.3931
9	0.4466	0.7563	0.7987	1.5974	0.9004	1.3506