Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University

Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University ›› 2012, Vol. 46 ›› Issue (08): 1340-1348.

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A Simulation Analysis of Shanghai Pension Reform Based on System Dynamics

 WANG  Yu-Xi-1, WANG  Hong-1, 2 , CHEN  Qun-Min-3, XIAO  Jun-4   

  1. (1.School of Management, Shanghai Univ. of Engineering Science, Shanghai 201620, China; 2.Antai College of Economics & Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China; 3.The Development Research Center of Shanghai Municipal People’s Government, Shanghai 200003, China; 4.Jiangxi University of Finance and Economics, Nanchang 330013, China)
  • Received:2012-02-20 Online:2012-08-31 Published:2012-08-31

Abstract: By the use of census and 1% sampling investigation population data and yearbook data, combining the population actuarial science and system dynamics model with table function, six pension reform policy scenes are simulated. On the basis of pension gap forecast curve trend analysis, the new pension system merging policy may not only have a positive influence on Shanghai pension system in short term, but also have a negative influence on the persistence of pension in long term. Pension system may face a retire tide and a payment jump. 75% policy strength may be the best choice. The conclusion has important theoretical significance and applying value for the Shanghai pension reform policy research. 

Key words: system dynamics, simulation, pension reform, policy experiment, table function