Abstract:  Most of fused magnesium enterprises are productivitylimited factories, which will lose the orders that surpass their capacity in midseason and will overstock in off-season. Therefore, it was proposed to multistep forward predict requirements based on seasonal ARIMA model and to build the multi-objective optimization model of sales and stocks. A backward derivation method was designed to establish production plan, which can get the satisfying results. Aiming at prediction error, the real sales data are fed back to revise prediction results and adjust the optimization model to tune later production plan. The practical application proves the effects of the proposed approach.
 

Key words: fused magnesium, multi-objective production plan optimization, backward derivation, autoregressive integrated moving average （ARIMA）