Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University ›› 2020, Vol. 54 ›› Issue (4): 413-420.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2020.04.010

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Time-Varying Reliability of Rust Cracking Model Based on Initial Defect

ZHANG Qiang 1,2,LU Zhaohui 1,2,ZHAO Ran 2,LUN Peiyuan 2   

  1. 1. College of Architecture and Civil Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China; 2. School of Civil Engineering, Central South University, Changsha 410075, China
  • Online:2020-04-28 Published:2020-04-30

Abstract: In this paper, the prediction model of rust expansion time of concrete structures with the consideration of initial defects is established based on the theory of fracture mechanics. The limit state function of structure life prediction is established and an analysis method of time-dependent reliability based on three-order moment method is developed. The results show that compared with Monte-Carlo method, this method reduces the calculation time and improves the analysis efficiency when the calculated results are more consistent with each other. Among the parameters of concrete materials, the failure probability of concrete structure is the most sensitive to the randomness and uncertainty of cover thickness and less sensitive to the probability distribution type of random variables.

Key words: initial defect, fracture mechanics, three-order moment method, failure probability

CLC Number: