电力部门是中国二氧化碳排放最大的单一部门,电力低碳转型是实现“双碳“目标的关键抓手.当前,电力转型技术路径研究多从全局角度出发,以碳约束下电力行业转型成本最低为目标,寻求技术经济可行的转型方案.然而,针对发电企业低碳转型视角的研究仍相对欠缺,这会导致发电企业的低碳转型相对滞后,不利于电力行业的全局发展.基于此,本文综合考虑技术、经济、环境等多维影响因素,构建了发电企业低碳转型规划模型,分析了发电企业2060年实现碳中和的转型路径,并对比模拟了未来电力企业不同低碳转型情景下碳中和转型路径.研究结果表明,对发电企业而言,适度提前实现碳中和具有一定经济优势,但过早推进碳中和进程反而会带来成本剧增.此外,未来政策倾向于推高储能装机规模,发电企业需要加快推进相关技术及资源储备.最后,建议通过退役火电机组的改造或加装碳捕集与封存装置(CCS)的方式来解决火电机组退役问题,并将其应用于电力系统调峰与应急备用.

The power sector is the largest single source of carbon dioxide emissions in China, and its low-carbon transition is a pivotal lever for achieving the dual carbon goals. However, there remains a lack of focused studies on the low-carbon transition of power generation enterprises in the existing literature. To address this gap, this paper constructs a corporate low-carbon transition planning model integrating multidimensional factors including technological, economic, and environmental considerations. It analyzes the decarbonization pathways for power generation enterprises to achieve carbon neutrality by 2060 under the current policy. Furthermore, it conducts comparative simulations of several low-carbon transition scenarios for future power companies. The findings indicate that, for power generation enterprises, advancing carbon neutrality moderately ahead of schedule can yield certain benefits, but overly aggressive timelines may lead to steep cost escalations. Additionally, future policies are likely to drive increased energy storage deployment, necessitating preparatory technological and resource investments in relevant enterprises. Finally, the paper proposes solutions for decommissioned coal-fired power units, recommending their retrofitting or the integration of carbon capture and storage (CCS) technologies, which could be assigned roles in grid peak-shaving and emergency backup.