沙戈荒大型新能源基地是我国未来新型电力系统的重要组成部分，综合考虑建设成本和碳排放等因素，大基地中火电和储能容量有限，灵活性受限，因此大基地的调度运行面临极大挑战。文章提出了一种风-火-储大基地日前-实时协同调度方法。在日前阶段，根据风电粗略预测确定火电机组的启停计划及出力可调范围；基于火电出力可调范围和储能运行约束，构建风电可消纳区间；在实时阶段，根据当前风光出力按照分位数规则生成调度策略，无需高精度预测，进一步证明了分位数规则生成的调度决策自然满足系统运行约束。算例验证了所提风火储系统日前-实时协同调度方法的有效性。结果表明，所提不依赖点预测的调度方法优于3步情况下预测误差在10%以上的滚动优化方法，并发现运行调度的表现可以通过提高日前预测的精度或者日内短期预测的精度获得改善。所提方法可为新能源大基地运行提供重要参考。

Building renewable energy bases focusing on desert, Gobi and desert areas is a crucial component of new type power system in China. Taking into account factors such as construction costs and carbon emissions, the base has limited capacity for thermal power and energy storage, resulting in restricted flexibility. Consequently, the operation and scheduling of the base face significant challenges. This paper proposes a method of integrating day-ahead scheduling and realtime dispatch for wind-thermal-storage systems. In the day-ahead stage, the scheduling of thermal units, including on-off plans and adjustable output ranges, is determined based on a rough prediction of wind power. Then a flexibility interval is established considering the operational constraints of thermal units and energy storage. In the real-time stage, a quantile strategy is proposed based on the observed renewable outputs, eliminating the requirement for high-precision forecasts. This paper further proves that dispatch decisions generated by the quantile strategy naturally satisfy the system's operational constraints. The case study validates the effectiveness of the proposed method for the wind-thermal-storage system. The results demonstrated that the proposed method, which does not rely on point prediction, outperformed the rolling optimization method with prediction errors exceeding 10% in a 3-step scenario. It is found that the performance of scheduling can be improved by enhancing the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts or intraday short-term forecasts. The proposed method can serve as a valuable reference for the operation of large-scale renewable energy bases.