计及海上风电不确定性的输电网两阶段鲁棒扩展规划

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.028

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

海上风电复杂多重不确定性给输电网络结构的安全性和鲁棒性带来极大挑战.为了提升电网网架对海上风电的适应能力,提出基于Vague软集的海上风电接入下输电网两阶段鲁棒扩展规划方法.首先,引入Vague软集理论,从真隶属度函数、伪隶属度函数和未知信息测度等角度将海上风电的多重综合不确定因素转化为不确定性参数集,并采用蒙特卡罗模拟进一步构建海上风电Vague场景集;然后,建立基于Vague不确定性场景集的海上风电接入下输电网两阶段鲁棒扩展规划模型,第一阶段以海陆线路建设、网损费用等投资总费用最小为目标,第二阶段以海上风电弃风与切负荷量最小为目标,并结合基于二阶锥松弛后的交流潮流约束,利用第二阶段模型返回的弃风与切负荷期望值修改第一阶段模型的运行变量,得到迭代后的输电网鲁棒规划方案;最后,调用Gurobi数学优化引擎对Garver6节点系统与IEEE 39节点系统进行算例分析,以验证所提鲁棒扩展规划方法的有效性和可行性.

关键词: 海上风电, 鲁棒扩展规划, Vague软集, 输电网, 不确定性

Abstract:

The complex and multiple uncertainties of offshore wind power pose great challenges to the safety and robustness of transmission grid structures. In order to improve the adaptability of grid structure to offshore wind power, a robust expansion planning method based on Vague soft set is proposed. First, Monte Carlo simulation is employed to construct the offshore wind Vague scenarios, which transform multiple comprehensive uncertainties of offshore wind power into uncertain parameter sets from true membership function, pseudo-membership function, and unknown information measure based on the Vague soft set theory. Then, a two-stage robust expansion planning model based on Vague scenario set is established for transmission network with offshore wind power penetration. The minimum total investment cost of offshore and onshore line and network loss is taken as the objective function in the first stage, while the minimum objectives of wind abandonment and cutting load for offshore wind power are proposed with the alternating current power flow constraint based on second-order cone relaxation in the second stage. Based on the expected values of wind abandonment and cutting load returned by the second stage model, the operation variables of the first stage model are modified to ultimately obtain the iterative transmission network robust planning scheme. Finally, the Gurobi mathematical optimization engine is used to analyze the Garver 6-node system and IEEE 39-node system to verify the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed robust expansion planning method.

Key words: offshore wind power, robust expansion planning, Vague soft set, transmission network, uncertainty

中图分类号:

TM715

田书欣, 韩雪, 符杨, 苏向敬, 李振坤. 计及海上风电不确定性的输电网两阶段鲁棒扩展规划[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2024, 58(9): 1400-1409.

TIAN Shuxin, HAN Xue, FU Yang, SU Xiangjing, LI Zhenkun. Two-Stage Robust Expansion Planning of Transmission Network Considering Uncertainty of Offshore Wind Power[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2024, 58(9): 1400-1409.

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场景号	不确定集	规划模型	海陆线路投建费用/亿元	海上风电弃风率%	切负荷率/%	总成本/亿元
1	典型随机	常规规划	7.5591	4.64	0.92	36.02
2	典型随机	鲁棒规划	7.8688	1.31	0	29.82
3	Vague极限	常规规划	7.5620	5.72	3.28	72.81
4	Vague极限	鲁棒规划	7.8701	3.28	0	57.63

场景号	不确定集	规划模型	海陆线路投建费用/亿元	海上风电弃风率%	切负荷率%	总成本/亿元
1	典型随机	常规规划	8.6333	4.49	1.21	43.66
2	典型随机	鲁棒规划	9.2781	1.62	0	37.42
3	Vague极限	常规规划	8.6403	5.33	3.33	85.53
4	Vague极限	鲁棒规划	9.2456	3.09	0	56.52