构建灾害风险图谱提高电力系统安全调度能力

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2023.535

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

严重的地质灾害会导致大停电事故,从而影响电网的安全稳定运行.针对地质灾害对电网的影响,提出一种基于灾害风险图谱的电力系统安全调度策略.首先,构建多种灾害影响因子的灾害风险图谱,并将该图谱与输电线路的地理位置相结合,得到输电线路的危险情况;然后,建立电力系统运行风险模型,通过风险综合指标对电力系统的风险情况进行量化分析;最后,以新英格兰地区为例,采用粒子群算法构建发电机和灵活性资源的调节策略,并验证其有效性和可行性.结果表明,所提电力系统安全调度策略可以有效减少包括电力系统越限/重载风险在内的风险综合指标值,增强电网运行的安全性和稳定性.

关键词: 地质灾害, 风险图谱, 越限/重载风险, 灵活性资源

Abstract:

Severe geological disasters can lead to major power outages, posing serious threats to the safe and stable operation of power grids. To address the impact of geologic disasters on power grids, a power system security scheduling strategy based on disaster risk mapping is proposed. First, a disaster risk mapping strategy is constructed based on a variety of disaster impact factors, and the hazardous situation of the transmission line is obtained by overlaying this map with the geographic location of the transmission line. Then, a power system operation risk model is established to quantitatively analyze the risk of the system using composite risk indexes. Finally, a particle swarm algorithm is used to construct the regulation strategy of generators and flexibility resources using the New England power system as a case study to validate the effectiveness and feasibility of the strategy. The results show that the proposed power system security scheduling strategy can effectively reduce the comprehensive risk indicators, including the risk of power system overrun/heavy load, enhancing the security and stability of power grid operations.

Key words: geohazards, risk mapping, overrun/heavy load risk, flexibility resources

中图分类号:

TM711

解大, 李子怡, 田洲, 王凯. 构建灾害风险图谱提高电力系统安全调度能力[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2025, 59(9): 1338-1347.

XIE Da, LI Ziyi, TIAN Zhou, WANG Kai. Disaster Risk Mapping for Improving Power System Security Dispatch[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2025, 59(9): 1338-1347.

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工况	线路	信息量值	危险系数	极限功率/ MW	重载功率/ MW
1	2—3	7.2614	0.8309	500	400
2	1—2	6.6164	0.7494	600	480
3	2—25	5.0888	0.5869	500	400
4	3—4	5.0374	0.5821	500	400
5	4—14	5.0144	0.5800	500	400
6	28—29	4.7828	0.5589	600	480
7	16—21	4.1586	0.5058	600	480
8	22—23	4.1586	0.5058	600	480
9	17—18	4.0624	0.4980	600	480
10	2—30	3.9272	0.4874	900	720

节点	节点负荷	最大调节量	节点负荷调节范围	节点最优负荷	灵活性资源调节量
1	97.6	9.900	[87.7, 107.5]	91.82	-5.78
2	0	9.900	[-9.9, 9.9]	8.88	8.88
3	322.0	9.900	[312.1, 331.9]	313.12	-8.88
4	500.0	4.026	[496.0, 504.0]	498.32	-1.68
5	0	4.026	[-4.0, 4.0]	3.71	3.71

发电机序号	所接节点	优化前有功	优化后有功	出力调整量
1	30	250	400	150
2	31	677.87	495.46	-182.41
3	32	650	489	-161
4	33	632	580	-52
5	34	508	585	77
6	35	650	560	-90
7	36	560	564	4
8	37	540	410	-130
9	38	830	860	30
10	39	1000	1053.25	53.25

场景	越限风险指标	重载风险指标	网损指标	发电机运行成本指标	风险综合指标
1	8.65	27.76	192.22	45077.33	334.69
2	2.24	20.23	-0.43	41520.72	62.85
3	2.19	17.25	-0.53	44488.79	56.31
4	1.09	5.81	-3.64	42735.18	19.31