上海交通大学学报

上海交通大学学报（自然版） ›› 2013, Vol. 47 ›› Issue (03): 417-422.

• 交通运输 • 上一篇    下一篇

全球航运景气指数的研究

宁晓琳1，赵一飞2，陈飞儿1   

  1. (1.上海交通大学 船舶海洋与建筑工程学院，上海 200240； 2. 上海交通大学 安泰经济与管理学院，上海 200030)  
  • 收稿日期:2012-03-20 出版日期:2013-03-28 发布日期:2013-03-28
  • 基金资助:

    2010年度上海市政府决策咨询研究重大课题（2010Z66）

Index System and Prosperity Indices of Global Shipping Industry and Applied Research

 NING  Xiao-Lin-1, ZHAO  Yi-Fei-2, CHEN  Fei-儿1   

  1. (1. School of Naval Architecture, Ocean and Civil Engineering, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200240, China; 2.Antai College of Economics and Management, Shanghai Jiaotong University, Shanghai 200030, China)
  • Received:2012-03-20 Online:2013-03-28 Published:2013-03-28

摘要： 为了更好地度量和评价国际航运市场的发展状况和态势，结合全球航运业的行业容量和价值水平等因素，模仿层次分析法的结构构建了全球航运景气指标体系；运用时差相关分析、聚类分析等方法将全球航运景气指标分为先行、一致、滞后3大类；借鉴经济学景气监测理论，运用因子分析法，编制了全球航运景气扩散指数及合成指数；并以全球航运经济近5年数据为研究样本，展示了全球航运景气指数的编制过程及其结果，全面评价了全球航运业景气状况的动态变化过程.    

关键词: 国际航运, 扩散指数, 合成指数, 景气监测

Abstract: In order to better measure and evaluate the conditions of the international shipping market and its development trend, this paper, taking into consideration the volume and value level and other factors of the global shipping industry, simulated the structure of AHP and established the index system of global shipping prosperity; using the time difference correlation analysis, cluster analysis, etc., classified these indicators into three categories of the preceding, the simultaneous and the lagging indicators; learned the theory of the economic monitoring, and established the diffusion indices and composite indices of global shipping prosperity by using the method of factor analysis; collected the statistics of the global maritime economy in recent five years as a study sample, illustrated global shipping prosperity indices and the results, and comprehensively and objectively assessed the dynamic process of the global shipping industry prosperity.  

Key words: international shipping, diffusion indices, composite indices, prosperity monitoring

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