考虑多重不确定性因素的可靠性指标计算与备用容量优化

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.366

上海交通大学学报 ›› 2024, Vol. 58 ›› Issue (1): 30-39.doi: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.366

• 新型电力系统与综合能源 • 上一篇下一篇

考虑多重不确定性因素的可靠性指标计算与备用容量优化

叶伦¹, 欧阳旭¹, 姚建刚¹(), 杨胜杰², 尹骏刚¹

1.湖南大学电气与信息工程学院,长沙 410082
2.湖南工商大学计算机学院,长沙 410205

收稿日期:2022-09-19 修回日期:2022-10-07 接受日期:2022-11-10 出版日期:2024-01-28 发布日期:2024-01-16
通讯作者: 姚建刚,教授,博士生导师,电话(Tel.):0731-88821872;E-mail:yaojiangang@126.com.
作者简介:叶伦(1992-),博士生,从事电力系统优化、辅助服务市场研究.
基金资助:
湖南省教育厅重点项目(21A0385);湖南省自然科学基金面上项目(2022JJ30214)

Reliability Index Calculation and Reserve Capacity Optimization Considering Multiple Uncertainties

YE Lun¹, OUYANG Xu¹, YAO Jiangang¹(), YANG Shengjie², YIN Jungang¹

1. College of Electrical and Information Engineering, Hunan University, Changsha 410082, China
2. School of Computer Science, Hunan University of Technology and Business, Changsha 410205, China

Received:2022-09-19 Revised:2022-10-07 Accepted:2022-11-10 Online:2024-01-28 Published:2024-01-16

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在含高比例可再生能源的电力系统中,考虑多重不确定性因素并实现源荷协调的优化调度是电力系统运行的重要问题.为此,构建了基于多场景的概率性旋转备用优化模型,该模型综合考虑了风电和光伏出力预测误差、负荷预测误差及发电机非计划停运等多重不确定性因素对旋转备用容量的影响,将可再生能源弃电、系统切负荷分别作为特殊的备用资源融入发电日前调度计划,以提高电力系统的经济运行效率.改进了系统可再生能源削减期望和电量不足期望值两个可靠性指标的计算方法,减少了与该指标相关的不等式约束条件,用于提升模型的计算性能.该备用优化模型在兼顾场景多样性的同时,实现了多场景下系统的总成本最优.以改进的IEEE-RTS系统作为算例,验证了所提模型的有效性.算例结果表明,改进的可靠性指标计算方法能够有效降低备用优化模型的求解时间;建立的最优旋转备用优化方法能够实现系统日前旋转备用容量的动态配置,提升系统经济运行水平.

关键词: 可再生能源, 旋转备用, 可靠性指标, 安全约束机组组合, 成本效益分析

Abstract:

In power systems with a high proportion of renewable energy, to achieve coordinated optimal scheduling of source and load considering multiple uncertainties is an important issue in power system operation. Therefore, a probabilistic spinning reserve optimization model based on multiple scenarios is constructed. Multiple uncertain factors are considered in the model, such as wind power and solar power forecast errors, load forecast error and unscheduled generator outage. Renewable energy curtailment and load shedding are used as special reserve resources in the day-ahead security-constrained unit commitment (SCUC) to improve the economic operation efficiency. The calculations of reliability indexes, expected energy not served and expected energy curtailment, are simplified, and the inequality constraints related to these two indexes are reduced, which improves the computational performance of the model. The model optimizes the total expected cost considering multiple uncertainties. Case studies based on the IEEE-RTS demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed model. The numerical results show that the improved calculation method of reliability indexes can effectively reduce the solution time of the SCUC model. The reserve optimization model can realize the dynamic allocation of the spinning reserve capacity of the system and improve economic operation of the system.

Key words: renewable energy, spinning reserve, reliability index, security-constrained unit commitment, cost-benefit analysis

中图分类号:

TM732

叶伦, 欧阳旭, 姚建刚, 杨胜杰, 尹骏刚. 考虑多重不确定性因素的可靠性指标计算与备用容量优化[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2024, 58(1): 30-39.

YE Lun, OUYANG Xu, YAO Jiangang, YANG Shengjie, YIN Jungang. Reliability Index Calculation and Reserve Capacity Optimization Considering Multiple Uncertainties[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2024, 58(1): 30-39.

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求解精度	N_K	I		II		III
求解精度	N_K	E^C /美元	计算时间/s	E^C /美元	计算时间/s	E^C /美元	计算时间/s
10^-3	3	689 421	7.28	689 426	2.30	689 370	1.16
	5	695 448	51.12	695 226	2.81	695 234	1.06
	7	697 071	94.21	697 008	4.68	697 058	1.35
	9	697 487	181.11	697 380	7.05	697 398	1.86
10^-6	3	689 231	23.39	689 231	10.17	689 231	2.38
	5	695 167	181.33	695 167	48.98	695 167	4.21
	7	—	>1 000	696 910	60.94	696 910	5.43
	9	—	>1 000	697 342	80.11	697 342	5.46

备用配置方式	期望成本/ 美元	电能成本/ 美元	启动成本/ 美元	正旋转备用成本/美元	负旋转备用成本/美元	失负荷成本/美元	能源削减成本/美元
方式1	711 785	662 544	9 551	25 446	8 303	5 942	0
方式2	708 351	646 677	7 830	19 202	8 303	26 339	0
方式3	697 058	647 101	7 092	22 889	4 325	14 563	1 088

考虑多重不确定性因素的可靠性指标计算与备用容量优化

Reliability Index Calculation and Reserve Capacity Optimization Considering Multiple Uncertainties

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