一种基于路网抗震韧性的路段重要度评价方法

doi:10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2022.359

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

路段韧性重要度评价对于提升路网抗震韧性水平至关重要.以韧性的增加值(RAW)为评价指标,提出了一种基于路网抗震韧性的路段重要度评价方法.借助动态贝叶斯网络(DBN)双向推理能力,以初始DBN为基准,不同时刻路段连通状态为证据,更新路网韧性曲线,计算路网韧性的增加值,评价不同时刻路段韧性重要度,并以青岛市市南区局部路网为实例验证路段重要度评价方法.结果表明:同一时刻不同路段的韧性重要度不同;同一路段的韧性重要度与维修速率成正相关;不同路段的韧性重要度对时间的敏感程度不同.提出的重要度评价方法重新定义并量化了不同时刻路段抗震韧性重要度,识别了韧性重要度较高且对时间较敏感的路段,将有限的维修资源向该部分路段倾斜的震后恢复策略与加固韧性重要度较高路段的震前预防策略能够更有效地提高路网抗震韧性水平.

关键词: 路网, 抗震韧性, 路段韧性重要度, 动态贝叶斯网络, 韧性增加值

Abstract:

The evalution of link resilience importance is essential for improving the seismic resilience level of the road network. Using resilience achievement worth (RAW) as evaluation index, an evaluation method of link importance based on seismic resilience of road networks was proposed. With the help of the bidirectional inference ability of dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), taking the initial DBN as the benchmark and the link connectivity at different times as the evidence, the resilience curve of the road network was updated, the RAW was calculated, and the link resilience importance at different times was evaluated. Taking the local road network in Shinan District of Qingdao as an example, the evaluation method of link importance was verified. The results show that the seismic resilience importance varies with each link at the same time. The resilience importance of the same link is positively correlated with maintenance rate. The resilience importance of different links varies in sensitivity to time. The proposed importance evaluation method redefines and quantifies the seismic resilience importance of links at different times, and identifies the links with high resilience importance and sensitivity to time. The post-earthquake recovery strategy that inclines the limited maintenance resources to these links and the pre-earthquake prevention strategy that reinforces the links with higher resilience importance can more efficiently improve the seismic resilience of the road network.

Key words: road network, seismic resilience, link resilience importance, dynamic Bayesian network (DBN), resilience achievement worth (RAW)

中图分类号:

U491

陈轶钦, 黄淑萍. 一种基于路网抗震韧性的路段重要度评价方法[J]. 上海交通大学学报, 2023, 57(10): 1250-1260.

CHEN Yiqin, HUANG Shuping. An Evaluation Method for Link Importance Based on Seismic Resilience of Road Network[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, 2023, 57(10): 1250-1260.

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状态	t-1时刻中断状态	t-1时刻连通状态
t时刻中断状态	1-λ	0
t时刻连通状态	λ	1

边	意义
地震—路段	不同烈度下路段的连通/中断概率
地震—恢复	不同烈度下的恢复速率
恢复—路段&路段—路段	路段t时刻的连通概率由恢复速率与t-1时刻的连通概率决定
路段—路径	“与门”连接
路径—OD对	“或门”连接
OD对—O点/D点	“或门”连接
O点/D点—抗震功能系统	“与门”连接
抗震功能系统—路网	“与门”连接

路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度	路段	7度	8度	9度
0	1	1	0.89	11	—	—	—	22	0.86	0.82	0.79	32	1	0.98	0.96
1	1	1	0.92	12	1	1	0.92	23	1	1	0.95	33	1	0.98	0.96
2	1	1	1	13	1	1	1	24	1	1	1	34	1	1	0.5
3	1	1	0.89	14	1	1	1	25	1	1	1	35	1	1	1
4	1	1	1	15	1	1	1	26	—	—	—	36	0.71	0.64	0.55
5	1	1	0	16	1	1	1	27	1	1	0.92	37	0.86	0.82	0.79
6	—	—	—	17	1	1	0.98	28	1	1	0.99	38	1	1	1
7	1	1	0.98	18	1	0.98	0.96	29	1	1	0.98	39	1	1	0.86
8	1	1	1	19	1	1	1	30	1	1	0.98	40	1	1	0.5
9	—	—	—	20	0.71	0.64	0.59	31	1	1	0.92	41	1	1	1
10	1	1	0	21	1	1	0.98

抗震功能系统	OD对	路径	抗震功能系统	OD对	路径
应急救援系统	(5)→(4)	36	医疗救护系统	(4)→(3)	22+37
		8			22+21+24
	(5)→(10)	10+5		(4)→(8)	8+31+27+0
		31+27			36+20+30+7+0
	(5)→(11)	31+27+13		(10)→(8)	35+16
		31+33+12			27+0
	(15)→(12)	39+40		(10)→(13)	15
		4+25+15+23			13+41+23+15
物资运输系统	(0)→(7)	29+20+36+22+19		(11)→(8)	13+35+16
		29+30+32+33+18			41+3+0
	(0)→(14)	29+30+7+35+15		(11)→(13)	41+23+15
		29+20+31+27+15			41+40+2+25
	(1)→(7)	17+21+19		(12)→(8)	41+3+0
		17+21+1+18			41+13+35+16
	(2)→(7)	28+37+19		(12)→(13)	41+23+15
		28+37+1+18			40+2+25
	(16)→(7)	38
		14+39+34

路段	t=0	t=3 d	t=6 d	t=9 d
31	0.041	0.039	0.035	0.029
27	0.035	0.033	0.028	0.023
5&10	0.028	0.021	0.015	0.011
29	0.01	0.009	0.008	0.007
23	0.009	0.008	0.007	0.006
22	0.007	0.007	0.005	0.004
0	0.007	0.006	0.005	0.004
40	0.007	0.006	0.005	0.004
20	0.005	0.004	0.003	0.003
7	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.001
30	0.002	0.002	0.002	0.001
39	0.001	0.001	0.001	0