• 制导、导航与控制专栏 •

### 基于射击误差状态方程的高炮毁伤概率建模

1. 1.南京理工大学 自动化学院, 南京 210094
2.中国人民解放军 32200 部队, 辽宁 锦州 121000
• 收稿日期:2020-05-28 出版日期:2020-09-28 发布日期:2020-10-10
• 作者简介:王向民(1975-),男,湖南省岳阳市人,助理研究员,主要从事火力控制与武器效能评估的研究.电话(Tel.):13851721782;E-mail: wangxiangmin@njust.edu.cn
• 基金资助:
十三五国防预研项目(30101040204);国防重点科研项目(2019-JCJQ-ZD-134)

### A Damage Probability Calculation Model Based on State Equation of Firing Error for Anti-Aircraft Artillery

WANG Xiangmin1(), WANG Jun1, XIE Jietao2, GUO Zhi1

1. 1. School of Automation, Nanjing University of Science and Technology, Nanjing 210094, China
2. The 32200 Troop of PLA, Jinzhou 121000, Liaoning, China
• Received:2020-05-28 Online:2020-09-28 Published:2020-10-10

Abstract:

Aimed at the damage probability calculation of anti-aircraft artillery weapons when the firing error sequence is correlated, a recursive calculation model of the anti-aircraft artillery damage probability based on the firing error state equation is proposed. In this model, the error sequence, which matches Gaussian process, is used to build the state equation. Then, the weak correlation errors are decomposed into the predictable error and the unpredictable error. In addition, the error correlation is represented by the prediction coefficient. According to the recursive estimation theory, the calculation of the damage probability for the anti-aircraft artillery with correlation of the firing error is presented. The simulation results show that the damage probability calculation results are basically the same as those adopting the national military standard while the error is a first-order autocorrelation stationary sequence. However, the proposed recursive method has a higher accuracy if the error is a high-order autocorrelation stationary sequence.