Energy and Power Engineering

Wind Speed Short-Term Prediction Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform, Recurrent Neural Network and Error Correction

Expand
  • (School of Computer and Communication, Lanzhou University of Technology, Lanzhou 730050, China)

Received date: 2020-11-12

  Accepted date: 2021-04-02

  Online published: 2024-03-28

Abstract

Predicting wind speed accurately is essential to ensure the stability of the wind power system and improve the utilization rate of wind energy. However, owing to the stochastic and intermittent of wind speed, predicting wind speed accurately is difficult. A new hybrid deep learning model based on empirical wavelet transform, recurrent neural network and error correction for short-term wind speed prediction is proposed in this paper. The empirical wavelet transformation is applied to decompose the original wind speed series. The long short term memory network and the Elman neural network are adopted to predict low-frequency and highfrequency wind speed sub-layers respectively to balance the calculation efficiency and prediction accuracy. The error correction strategy based on deep long short term memory network is developed to modify the prediction errors. Four actual wind speed series are utilized to verify the effectiveness of the proposed model. The empirical results indicate that the method proposed in this paper has satisfactory performance in wind speed prediction.

Cite this article

ZHU Changsheng(朱昶胜), ZHU Lina (朱丽娜) . Wind Speed Short-Term Prediction Based on Empirical Wavelet Transform, Recurrent Neural Network and Error Correction[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science), 2024 , 29(2) : 297 -308 . DOI: 10.1007/s12204-022-2477-7

References

[1] MIAO S W, GU Y Z, LI D, et al. Determining suitable region wind speed probability distribution using optimal score-radar map [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2019, 183: 590-603.
[2] GENDEEL M, ZHANG Y X, HAN A Q. Performance comparison of ANNs model with VMD for short-term wind speed forecasting [J]. IET Renewable Power Generation, 2018, 12(12): 1424-1430.
[3] MA L, LUAN S Y, JIANG C W, et al. A review on the forecasting of wind speed and generated power [J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2009, 13(4): 915-920.
[4] HU J M, WANG J Z, XIAO L Q. A hybrid approach based on the Gaussian process with t-observation model for short-term wind speed forecasts [J]. Renewable Energy, 2017, 114: 670-685.
[5] ERDEM E, SHI J. ARMA based approaches for forecasting the tuple of wind speed and direction [J]. Applied Energy, 2011, 88(4): 1405-1414.
[6] SANTAMARIA-BONFIL G, REYESBALLESTEROS A, GERSHENSON C. Wind speed forecasting for wind farms: Amethod based on support vector regression [J]. Renewable Energy, 2016, 85: 790-809.
[7] ZHANG C, WEI H K, ZHAO X, et al. A Gaussian process regression based hybrid approach for shortterm wind speed prediction [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2016, 126: 1084-1092.
[8] NANDANA JYOTHI M, RAMANA RAO P V. Veryshort term wind power forecasting through Adaptive Wavelet Neural Network [C]//2016 Biennial International Conference on Power and Energy Systems: Towards Sustainable Energy (PESTSE). Bengaluru, India: IEEE, 2016: 1-6.
[9] VANITHA V, SOPHIA J G, RESMI R, et al. Arti- ficial intelligence-based wind forecasting using variational mode decomposition [J]. Computational Intelligence, 2021, 37: 1034-1046.
[10] WEI W, WU G L, YANG M H, et al. Short-term forecasting for wind speed based on wavelet decomposition and LMBP neural network [C]//2011 4th International Conference on Electric Utility Deregulation and Restructuring and Power Technologies (DRPT). Weihai, China: IEEE, 2011: 1126-1131.
[11] WANG X L, LI H. One-month ahead prediction of wind speed and output power based on EMD and LSSVM [C]//2009 International Conference on Energy and Environment Technology. Guilin, China: IEEE, 2009: 439-442.
[12] DU P, WANG J Z, GUO Z H, et al. Research and application of a novel hybrid forecasting system based on multi-objective optimization for wind speed forecasting [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2017, 150: 90-107.
[13] WAN J, CHEN N, QIAN M H, et al. Day- ahead wind speed prediction based on hybrid deep belief network [J]. Energy Conservation Technology, 2016, 34(1): 81-86 (in Chinese).
[14] JIAO R H, HUANG X J, MA X H, et al. A model combining stacked auto encoder and back propagation algorithm for short-term wind power forecasting [J]. IEEE Access, 2018, 6: 17851-17858.
[15] LIU H, MI X W, LI Y F. Smart deep learning based wind speed prediction model using wavelet packet decomposition, convolutional neural network and convolutional long short term memory network [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2018, 166: 120-131.
[16] HAN L, ZHANG R C, WANG X S, et al. Multi-step wind power forecast based on VMD-LSTM [J]. IET Renewable Power Generation, 2019, 13(10): 1690-1700.
[17] MA Z R, CHEN H W, WANG J J, et al. Application of hybrid model based on double decomposition, error correction and deep learning in short-term wind speed prediction [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2020, 205: 112345.
[18] LIU H, DUAN Z, CHEN C, et al. A novel twostage deep learning wind speed forecasting method with adaptive multiple error corrections and bivariate Dirichlet process mixture model [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2019, 199: 111975.
[19] WANG J J, LI Y N. Multi-step ahead wind speed prediction based on optimal feature extraction, long short term memory neural network and error correction strategy [J]. Applied Energy, 2018, 230: 429-443.
[20] GILLES J. Empirical wavelet transform [J]. IEEE Transactions on Signal Processing, 2013, 61(16): 3999- 4010.
[21] LIU H, WU H P, LI Y F. Smart wind speed forecasting using EWT decomposition, GWO evolutionary optimization, RELM learning and IEWT reconstruction [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2018, 161: 266-283.
[22] HOCHREITER S, SCHMIDHUBER J. Long shortterm memory [J]. Neural Computation, 1997, 9(8): 1735-1780.
[23] LI Y F, WU H P, LIU H. Multi-step wind speed forecasting using EWT decomposition, LSTM principal computing, RELM subordinate computing and IEWT reconstruction [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2018, 167: 203-219.
[24] WANG H Z, WANG G B, LI G Q, et al. Deep belief network based deterministic and probabilistic wind speed forecasting approach [J]. Applied Energy, 2016, 182: 80-93.
[25] ZHANG Z D, YE L, QIN H, et al. Wind speed prediction method using Shared Weight Long Short-Term Memory Network and Gaussian Process Regression [J]. Applied Energy, 2019, 247: 270-284.
[26] LIU X J, ZHANG H, KONG X B, et al. Wind speed forecasting using deep neural network with feature selection [J]. Neurocomputing, 2020, 397: 393-403.
[27] ZHANG G W, LIU D. Causal convolutional gated recurrent unit network with multiple decomposition methods for short-term wind speed forecasting [J]. Energy Conversion and Management, 2020, 226: 113500.
Outlines

/