Concession period is a key factor in the arrangement of a build-operate-transfer (BOT) contract. This
paper proposes a stochastic concession period model for infrastructure projects under a BOT scheme, which takes
into account the impact of risks and the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. A hypothetical
case is simulated by using the Monte Carlo simulation method to illustrate the proposed model. The results
indicate that even for a project with the same estimations, the concession interval can be different and depends
a lot on the risk attitudes of the private investor and the government. The proposed model provides a more
reasonable concession interval based on which a specific concession period can be obtained through negotiation
between the two parties.
ZHU Yinghua (朱莹华), XU Feng* (徐 峰), HU Hao (胡 昊)
. A Stochastic Concession Model for Infrastructure Projects Under Build-Operate-Transfer Schemes[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University(Science), 2016
, 21(3)
: 320
-327
.
DOI: 10.1007/s12204-016-1728-x
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