考虑感知异质性和心理距离的随机后悔最小化城市居民合乘出行选择模型

doi:10.1007/s12204-023-2588-9

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 合乘是一种可持续、经济和环保的解决方案，可以有效减少城市地区的空气污染和缓解交通拥堵。然而现有的后悔理论缺少考虑不同方式属性感知异质性以及影响后悔的心理因素，不能对城市居民合乘出行决策进行准确刻画，也不能对真实合乘选择行为做出正确的解释。本文在分析经典随机后悔最小化模型和考虑异质性随机后悔最小化模型的基础上，针对现有模型的不足，引入心理距离概念，构建了考虑异质性和心理距离的随机后悔最小化改进模型。结果表明，本文提出的改进模型的拟合度和解释效果相较于其他两种模型均较优，出行居民在2019冠状病毒病疫情期间的心理距离会影响出行决策的预期后悔值和合乘意愿。该模型可以更好地描述出行居民合乘出行选择机理，有效地解释出行居民的合乘选择行为。

关键词: 合乘出行行为, 随机后悔最小化理论, 预期后悔值, 感知异质性, 心理距离

Abstract: Carpooling is a sustainable, economical, and environmentally friendly solution to reduce air pollution and ease traffic congestion in urban areas. However, existing regret theories lack consideration of the heterogeneity of attribute perception in different ways and the psychological factors that affect regret, so they cannot accurately portray urban residents’ carpool travel decisions and cannot provide a correct explanation of the actual carpool choice behavior. In this paper, based on the analysis of classical random regret minimization models and random regret minimization models considering heterogeneity, the concept of psychological distance is introduced to address shortcomings of the existing models and construct an improved random regret minimization model considering heterogeneity and psychological distance. The results show that the fit and explanatory effect of the improved model proposed in this paper is better than that of the other two models. The psychological distance of travel residents during the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) affects the anticipated regret value and the willingness to carpool. The model can better describe the carpool travel choice mechanism of travelers and effectively explain the carpool travel choice behavior of travelers.

中图分类号:

U491.1

肖强a, c, 何瑞春b, 王子怡a. 考虑感知异质性和心理距离的随机后悔最小化城市居民合乘出行选择模型[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2024, 29(6): 995-1008.

XIAO Qiang^{a, c∗} (肖强), HE Ruichun^b (何瑞春), WANG Ziyi^a (王子怡). Random Regret Minimization Model of Carpool Travel Choice for Urban Residents Considering Perceived Heterogeneity and Psychological Distance[J]. J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci, 2024, 29(6): 995-1008.

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