J Shanghai Jiaotong Univ Sci ›› 2019, Vol. 24 ›› Issue (5): 622-627.doi: 10.1007/s12204-019-2102-6
Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Double Beta Prior Distribution for the Pyrotechnic Device
CHENG Li (程立), YANG Yuanyuan (杨媛媛), MU Huina (穆慧娜), YANG Xiaoyu (杨小玉), LI Li (李立), WEN Yuquan (温玉全)
- (State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China)
Reliability Evaluation Method Based on Double Beta Prior Distribution for the Pyrotechnic Device
CHENG Li (程立), YANG Yuanyuan (杨媛媛), MU Huina (穆慧娜), YANG Xiaoyu (杨小玉), LI Li (李立), WEN Yuquan (温玉全)
- (State Key Laboratory of Explosion Science and Technology, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China)
摘要： On the basis of the Bayesian principle, a method of selecting the double beta distribution as a priori distribution is proposed for the system reliability evaluation when the available field test samples are small for pyrotechnic device. Under the condition of different field and historical data, the mean square error (MSE) and coverage ratio (CR) of the reliability evaluation are compared by numerical simulation when the conjugate distribution and uniform distribution are selected as the priori distribution. Finally, the rationality and engineering applicability of the proposed method are verified through an example of the reliability evaluation of a typical pyrotechnic device.
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