With the advancement of the electricity spot
market and demand response trading in various provinces of China, electricity retailers and virtual power
plants face the risk of electricity price fluctuations and deviation penalties.
In response to the new pattern of the integration of electricity sales and
virtual power plant business, this paper constructs a multi-scenario risk
aversion model based on conditional value at risk (CVaR), and proposes a
day-ahead and real-time two-stage power trading decision-making method for the
integrated operation of the electricity retailer and virtual power plant. To
simultaneously measure the dual impacts of price fluctuations and tail losses,
the proposed model explicitly introduces CVaR constraints in the objective function
and extends to multi-scenario stochastic programming, which can be solved based
on the primal-dual interior-point method. The currently commonly used
deterministic point prediction model is optimized based on single-point power price
predictions, ignoring uncertainties such as market price fluctuations and
deviations in renewable power generation. In contrast, considering the price
distributions and multiple scenarios of risks, the proposed multi-scenario risk
aversion model based on CVaR not only retains the motivation of maximizing
expected returns, but also effectively suppresses extreme losses caused by day-ahead
and real-time price differences and uncertainties in demand response. The
simulation results show that the multi-scenario risk aversion model based on CVaR
can increase the expected return to the theoretical upper limit in the absence
of perfect information, and at the same time convert the loss of the VaR and
the CVaR into a return, greatly reducing the tail loss. The results verified the
dual-excellent performance of return and risk of the multi-scenario risk
aversion model based on CVaR in the day-ahead and real-time two-stage trading
in Guangdong, which can provide technical support for the power trading
decision-making and risk management of the integrated operation of the electricity retailer and virtual power
plant.
YANG Lei1, ZHU Zhenhai1, TAN Zhenfei2, SUN Hui1, GUO Yong1, GU Weiqi1, LYU Chengming2, TANG Tonghong2
. Research on Day-Ahead and Real-Time Electricity Trading Decision-making
Method under the Integration of Electricity Retailer and Virtual Power Plant[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 0
: 1
.
DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2025.315