Photovoltaic (PV) output exhibits strong
randomness and multi-scale temporal volatility. In long-term system planning,
scenario generation and reduction are required to balance scenario diversity
and computational complexity. However, existing methods primarily depend on
distance or mean error criteria, struggling to systematically uncover the
intrinsic relationship between reduction strategies and scenario characteristics.
This paper proposes an evaluation method for PV scenario reduction based on
multiple discrepancy metrics and Spearman correlation. First, the K-means
clustering is applied to compress PV output scenarios into diverse reduced
sets, which are then extrapolated into annual time series via a Markov chain
model. Subsequently, the optimal sizing of PV and energy storage systems is
executed across these scenarios. Finally, the Spearman rank correlation
coefficient is used to quantify the correlation between scenario discrepancy
metrics and optimization results, thereby establishing a comprehensive evaluation model weighted by these coefficients. The
results show that specific configuration outcomes fluctuate by over 5% across
different reduced and reconstructed scenarios, proving that scenario
discrepancy features dictate the sensitivity and stability of optimization
results. This paper offers a quantitative basis for selecting and assessing
scenario reduction techniques in renewable energy planning.
TAO Xinyu, HU Yan, TAI Nengling
. An
Evaluation Method for Photovoltaic Power Output Scenario Compression Based on
Spearman Correlation[J]. Journal of Shanghai Jiaotong University, 0
: 1
.
DOI: 10.16183/j.cnki.jsjtu.2026.033